Accel Partners' European Launch Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Accel Partners' European Launch case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Accel Partners' European Launch case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by G. Felda Hardymon, Josh Lerner, Ann Leamon. The Accel Partners' European Launch (referred as “Accel Accel's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Decision making, Financial management, Growth strategy, International business, Joint ventures, Venture capital.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Accel Partners' European Launch Case Study

In spring 2001, with the venture market crashing all around, the London office of Accel Partners, a major west coast venture capital firm, needs to make a decision about investing in an Irish software company. As the first investment of the new European operation, the decision will serve as a proof of concept for the process that the organization has set up. This case presents Accel's strategy in moving into Europe and staying there even as many other firms shuttered or reduced their overseas' operations. In addition, the protagonists must decide how to structure a term sheet and whether to include another venture firm in the deal.

Case Authors : G. Felda Hardymon, Josh Lerner, Ann Leamon

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Decision making, Financial management, Growth strategy, International business, Joint ventures, Venture capital

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Accel Partners' European Launch Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005836)	-10005836	-	-
Year 1	3471122	-6534714	3471122	0.9434	3274643
Year 2	3982497	-2552217	7453619	0.89	3544408
Year 3	3965706	1413489	11419325	0.8396	3329683
Year 4	3243664	4657153	14662989	0.7921	2569286
TOTAL			14662989		12718020

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2712184

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Accel Accel's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Accel Accel's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Accel Partners' European Launch

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Accel Accel's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Accel Accel's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005836)	-10005836	-	-
Year 1	3471122	-6534714	3471122	0.8696	3018367
Year 2	3982497	-2552217	7453619	0.7561	3011340
Year 3	3965706	1413489	11419325	0.6575	2607516
Year 4	3243664	4657153	14662989	0.5718	1854575
TOTAL					10491798

The Net NPV after 4 years is 485962

(10491798 - 10005836 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005836)	-10005836	-	-
Year 1	3471122	-6534714	3471122	0.8333	2892602
Year 2	3982497	-2552217	7453619	0.6944	2765623
Year 3	3965706	1413489	11419325	0.5787	2294969
Year 4	3243664	4657153	14662989	0.4823	1564267
TOTAL					9517460

The Net NPV after 4 years is -488376

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9517460 - 10005836 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Accel Accel's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Accel Accel's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Accel Accel's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Accel Accel's, then the stock price of the Accel Accel's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Accel Accel's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Accel Partners' European Launch

References & Further Readings

G. Felda Hardymon, Josh Lerner, Ann Leamon (2018), "Accel Partners' European Launch Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.