Woolf Farming and the California Water Crisis Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Woolf Farming and the California Water Crisis case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Woolf Farming and the California Water Crisis case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Forest Reinhardt, David E. Bell, Natalie Kindred, Mary Shelman. The Woolf Farming and the California Water Crisis (referred as “Woolf Water” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Entrepreneurship, Government, Sustainability.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Woolf Farming and the California Water Crisis Case Study

This case highlights the tough choices, competing interests, and decision-making mechanisms involved in California's management of its severe drought, entering its fifth year in 2015. Stuart Woolf, CEO of Woolf Farming, a grower and processor of almonds, tomatoes, and other crops in California's Central Valley, must decide how to respond to the changing operating environment. Scarce water resources-and institutional constraints on the use of water-have forced many producers, including Woolf, to fallow farmland. Meanwhile, competing demands for water from municipalities and environmental interests have raised the public's scrutiny of agricultural water use. This case describes farming in California's Central Valley and reviews the state's complicated system for managing water rights and resources. It invites students to analyze the relative merits of competing perspectives on how to allocate water, the institutional mechanisms for doing so, and the potential responses of agricultural producers to the changing marketplace. Is now the time to double down on farming in the Central Valley, shift to a higher-value-added crop portfolio (e.g., organics), or retreat from this challenging business?

Case Authors : Forest Reinhardt, David E. Bell, Natalie Kindred, Mary Shelman

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas : Entrepreneurship, Government, Sustainability

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Woolf Farming and the California Water Crisis Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013592)	-10013592	-	-
Year 1	3449682	-6563910	3449682	0.9434	3254417
Year 2	3967401	-2596509	7417083	0.89	3530973
Year 3	3974170	1377661	11391253	0.8396	3336790
Year 4	3232562	4610223	14623815	0.7921	2560492
TOTAL			14623815		12682671

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2669079

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Woolf Water have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Woolf Water shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Woolf Farming and the California Water Crisis

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Woolf Water often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Woolf Water needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013592)	-10013592	-	-
Year 1	3449682	-6563910	3449682	0.8696	2999723
Year 2	3967401	-2596509	7417083	0.7561	2999925
Year 3	3974170	1377661	11391253	0.6575	2613081
Year 4	3232562	4610223	14623815	0.5718	1848228
TOTAL					10460958

The Net NPV after 4 years is 447366

(10460958 - 10013592 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013592)	-10013592	-	-
Year 1	3449682	-6563910	3449682	0.8333	2874735
Year 2	3967401	-2596509	7417083	0.6944	2755140
Year 3	3974170	1377661	11391253	0.5787	2299867
Year 4	3232562	4610223	14623815	0.4823	1558913
TOTAL					9488654

The Net NPV after 4 years is -524938

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9488654 - 10013592 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Woolf Water to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Woolf Water has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Woolf Water can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Woolf Water, then the stock price of the Woolf Water should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Woolf Water should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Woolf Farming and the California Water Crisis

References & Further Readings

Forest Reinhardt, David E. Bell, Natalie Kindred, Mary Shelman (2018), "Woolf Farming and the California Water Crisis Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.