Bank of Japan's Meeting in March 2006: An End to the Quantitative Easing Policy? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Bank of Japan's Meeting in March 2006: An End to the Quantitative Easing Policy? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Bank of Japan's Meeting in March 2006: An End to the Quantitative Easing Policy? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mitsuru Misawa. The Bank of Japan's Meeting in March 2006: An End to the Quantitative Easing Policy? (referred as “Easing Boj's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Policy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Bank of Japan's Meeting in March 2006: An End to the Quantitative Easing Policy? Case Study

The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy board convened for a two-day meeting starting March 8, 2006. It was expected the BOJ's Policy Board would decided to end its five-year, super-loose monetary stance, mainly because a set of predetermined conditions for terminating the quantitative easing had been met--including steady year-on-year growth in the core CPI (consumer price index). Under the quantitative easing approach, the BOJ had flooded the market with far greater amounts of liquidity than needed. A decision to end the policy meant Japan was returning to a normal monetary stance targeting interest rates after five years of pursuing an unorthodox policy designed to combat persistent deflation. The BOJ's decision was not easy. Although the law established the BOJ's independence, there was considerable opposition from the government, including Prime Minister Koizumi in particular, to an early dropping of the quantitative monetary easing. Because no major central bank had ever had such a loose-money policy, no one knew for sure how to end it smoothly.

Case Authors : Mitsuru Misawa

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management, Policy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Bank of Japan's Meeting in March 2006: An End to the Quantitative Easing Policy? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000996)	-10000996	-	-
Year 1	3454762	-6546234	3454762	0.9434	3259209
Year 2	3976353	-2569881	7431115	0.89	3538940
Year 3	3937235	1367354	11368350	0.8396	3305778
Year 4	3245555	4612909	14613905	0.7921	2570784
TOTAL			14613905		12674711

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2673715

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Easing Boj's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Easing Boj's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Bank of Japan's Meeting in March 2006: An End to the Quantitative Easing Policy?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Easing Boj's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Easing Boj's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000996)	-10000996	-	-
Year 1	3454762	-6546234	3454762	0.8696	3004141
Year 2	3976353	-2569881	7431115	0.7561	3006694
Year 3	3937235	1367354	11368350	0.6575	2588796
Year 4	3245555	4612909	14613905	0.5718	1855657
TOTAL					10455288

The Net NPV after 4 years is 454292

(10455288 - 10000996 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000996)	-10000996	-	-
Year 1	3454762	-6546234	3454762	0.8333	2878968
Year 2	3976353	-2569881	7431115	0.6944	2761356
Year 3	3937235	1367354	11368350	0.5787	2278492
Year 4	3245555	4612909	14613905	0.4823	1565179
TOTAL					9483996

The Net NPV after 4 years is -517000

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483996 - 10000996 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Easing Boj's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Easing Boj's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Easing Boj's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Easing Boj's, then the stock price of the Easing Boj's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Easing Boj's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Bank of Japan's Meeting in March 2006: An End to the Quantitative Easing Policy?

References & Further Readings

Mitsuru Misawa (2018), "Bank of Japan's Meeting in March 2006: An End to the Quantitative Easing Policy? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.