Runa: Driving Social Change through Passion and Profit Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Runa: Driving Social Change through Passion and Profit case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Runa: Driving Social Change through Passion and Profit case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Laura Hattendorf, Ryan Kissick. The Runa: Driving Social Change through Passion and Profit (referred as “Runa Gage” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Joint ventures, Marketing, Social enterprise.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Runa: Driving Social Change through Passion and Profit Case Study

Near the end of 2008, Tyler Gage and Dan MacCombie enrolled in an entrepreneurship course at Brown University. During the class, they refined the business plan for Runa, a beverage company that would make drinks from guayusa, a little-known leaf that grew in the Amazon. Beyond the potential of the business to make money, the two believed in Runa's social missiona??respecting the cultural traditions of Ecuadorian Kichwa communities, providing sustainable income streams to small farmers, and helping the Amazon rainforest thrive. Just months after delivering their final classroom presentation for Runa, Gage and MacCombie found themselves in Ecuador, pursuing the idea full time. "Runa: Driving Social Change through Passion and Profit" explores Gage and MacCombie's journey from class project to a fast-growing start-up. More specifically, the case explores the myriad challenges Gage and MacCombie faced in building Runa: raising money to launch the venture; establishing successful partnerships and overcoming deep-seated skepticism among Ecuadorian communities; building a supply chain from scratch; developing a successful go-to-market strategy; and maintaining their focus on social impact while simultaneously generating financial returns.

Case Authors : Laura Hattendorf, Ryan Kissick

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas : Financial management, Joint ventures, Marketing, Social enterprise

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Runa: Driving Social Change through Passion and Profit Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010076)	-10010076	-	-
Year 1	3468977	-6541099	3468977	0.9434	3272620
Year 2	3979038	-2562061	7448015	0.89	3541330
Year 3	3962118	1400057	11410133	0.8396	3326671
Year 4	3226603	4626660	14636736	0.7921	2555772
TOTAL			14636736		12696392

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2686316

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Runa Gage have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Runa Gage shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Runa: Driving Social Change through Passion and Profit

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Runa Gage often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Runa Gage needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010076)	-10010076	-	-
Year 1	3468977	-6541099	3468977	0.8696	3016502
Year 2	3979038	-2562061	7448015	0.7561	3008724
Year 3	3962118	1400057	11410133	0.6575	2605157
Year 4	3226603	4626660	14636736	0.5718	1844821
TOTAL					10475204

The Net NPV after 4 years is 465128

(10475204 - 10010076 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010076)	-10010076	-	-
Year 1	3468977	-6541099	3468977	0.8333	2890814
Year 2	3979038	-2562061	7448015	0.6944	2763221
Year 3	3962118	1400057	11410133	0.5787	2292892
Year 4	3226603	4626660	14636736	0.4823	1556039
TOTAL					9502967

The Net NPV after 4 years is -507109

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9502967 - 10010076 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Runa Gage to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Runa Gage has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Runa Gage can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Runa Gage, then the stock price of the Runa Gage should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Runa Gage should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Runa: Driving Social Change through Passion and Profit

References & Further Readings

Laura Hattendorf, Ryan Kissick (2018), "Runa: Driving Social Change through Passion and Profit Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.