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The War for Rechargeable Electric-Vehicle Batteries Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The War for Rechargeable Electric-Vehicle Batteries case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The War for Rechargeable Electric-Vehicle Batteries case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Bowen Kim, Jeong Enu Sim. The The War for Rechargeable Electric-Vehicle Batteries (referred as “Battery Ev” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of The War for Rechargeable Electric-Vehicle Batteries Case Study


In 2014, most industry experts thought that the electric-vehicle (EV) battery market was an important opportunity for battery manufacturers, which would also restructure the traditional car industry. Despite this rosy EV-battery picture, the reality was not so optimistic. Many competitors, such as Samsung SDI, LG Chemical, and Panasonic, were already in the market, which caused battery prices to decline. Ominous examples forced companies already in the industry ("incumbents") to rethink and perhaps revamp their EV-battery market value-chain strategy. The incumbents had to define sustainable courses of action as they faced numerous risks and complexities. They had to make strategic choices to overcome the industry's huge uncertainties and obstacles. It was critical to take into account conditions and constraints in resources, processes, capabilities, and macro- and micro-economic environments.


Case Authors : Bowen Kim, Jeong Enu Sim

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas :




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The War for Rechargeable Electric-Vehicle Batteries Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10026904) -10026904 - -
Year 1 3466772 -6560132 3466772 0.9434 3270540
Year 2 3963284 -2596848 7430056 0.89 3527309
Year 3 3945000 1348152 11375056 0.8396 3312298
Year 4 3244883 4593035 14619939 0.7921 2570251
TOTAL 14619939 12680398




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2653494

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Battery Ev have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Battery Ev shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The War for Rechargeable Electric-Vehicle Batteries

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Battery Ev often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Battery Ev needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10026904) -10026904 - -
Year 1 3466772 -6560132 3466772 0.8696 3014584
Year 2 3963284 -2596848 7430056 0.7561 2996812
Year 3 3945000 1348152 11375056 0.6575 2593902
Year 4 3244883 4593035 14619939 0.5718 1855272
TOTAL 10460570


The Net NPV after 4 years is 433666

(10460570 - 10026904 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10026904) -10026904 - -
Year 1 3466772 -6560132 3466772 0.8333 2888977
Year 2 3963284 -2596848 7430056 0.6944 2752281
Year 3 3945000 1348152 11375056 0.5787 2282986
Year 4 3244883 4593035 14619939 0.4823 1564855
TOTAL 9489098


The Net NPV after 4 years is -537806

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9489098 - 10026904 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Battery Ev to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Battery Ev has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Battery Ev can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Battery Ev, then the stock price of the Battery Ev should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Battery Ev should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of The War for Rechargeable Electric-Vehicle Batteries

References & Further Readings

Bowen Kim, Jeong Enu Sim (2018), "The War for Rechargeable Electric-Vehicle Batteries Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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