Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?
At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Intrapreneurship at DaVita HealthCare Partners case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Joseph Fuller, David J. Collis, Matthew Preble. The Intrapreneurship at DaVita HealthCare Partners (referred as “Paladina Davita” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Entrepreneurial management, Health, Marketing, Strategic planning.
The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.
Josh Golomb, president and general manager of DaVita Rx (Rx), was about to meet with Kent Thiry, CEO of Rx's corporate parent, DaVita Healthcare Partners Inc. (DaVita), in August 2013. The two would discuss whether Golomb should lead a new DaVita venture, Paladina Health (Paladina), which operated a network of primary care clinics.DaVita had launched Paladina in early 2011 and the startup was struggling to gain traction: Paladina had already used a significant amount of the $40 million in funding committed by DaVita; the company's primary care clinics had not yet reached the number of patients necessary to sustain a profitable business; and it was in the midst of trying to integrate with another primary care clinic operator that it had acquired years earlier, but was just now merging into Paladina. Although the startup was young and still finding its way in an emerging industry, Thiry believed that Paladina would benefit from Golomb's experiences at Rx, which had also struggled in its early years. The situation at Rx became so precarious at one point that many of DaVita's senior leaders wanted to shut it down entirely. Rx made it through those challenging early years though, and was expected to exceed $600 million in revenues for 2013. However, Golomb wondered how relevant his Rx experience was to Paladina. Rx was closely tied to its parent company-DaVita provided dialysis services to patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and Rx supplied medications to ESRD patients-while Paladina's connection to DaVita was less obvious. If Golomb took the job, what could he do to make Paladina's clinics as efficient as possible in terms of service and its economics, without compromising on its value proposition? Was Paladina just too different of a business to be part of the DaVita family? This case offers an example of "intrapreneurship"-i.e. entrepreneurial ventures launched within large companies-at a Fortune 500 company. DaVita has already had a successful experience launching Rx (after some difficult early years), and the company is now even serving patients from some of DaVita's leading competitors. However, Paladina is the company's first intrapreneurial venture outside of its core focus of serving end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients-DaVita's main function is to provide dialysis se However, Paladina is the company's first intrapreneurial venture outside of its core focus of serving end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients-DaVita's main function is to provide dialysis services to ESRD patients and Rx provides medication to ESRD patients. Can Paladina succeed simply by following Rx's example, or will it face different challenges?
| Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 6 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | (10015411) | -10015411 | - | - | |
| Year 1 | 3454706 | -6560705 | 3454706 | 0.9434 | 3259157 |
| Year 2 | 3978165 | -2582540 | 7432871 | 0.89 | 3540553 |
| Year 3 | 3941736 | 1359196 | 11374607 | 0.8396 | 3309558 |
| Year 4 | 3232403 | 4591599 | 14607010 | 0.7921 | 2560366 |
| TOTAL | 14607010 | 12669633 |
In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -
Capital Budgeting Approaches
There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –
1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period
Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on
Discounted Cash Flow
technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.
Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –
1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Paladina Davita shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Paladina Davita have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0
Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate.
Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.
Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project
In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Paladina Davita often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.
To overcome such scenarios managers at Paladina Davita needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.
After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.
| Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 15 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | (10015411) | -10015411 | - | - | |
| Year 1 | 3454706 | -6560705 | 3454706 | 0.8696 | 3004092 |
| Year 2 | 3978165 | -2582540 | 7432871 | 0.7561 | 3008064 |
| Year 3 | 3941736 | 1359196 | 11374607 | 0.6575 | 2591755 |
| Year 4 | 3232403 | 4591599 | 14607010 | 0.5718 | 1848137 |
| TOTAL | 10452049 |
(10452049 - 10015411 )
If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.
| Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 20 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | (10015411) | -10015411 | - | - | |
| Year 1 | 3454706 | -6560705 | 3454706 | 0.8333 | 2878922 |
| Year 2 | 3978165 | -2582540 | 7432871 | 0.6944 | 2762615 |
| Year 3 | 3941736 | 1359196 | 11374607 | 0.5787 | 2281097 |
| Year 4 | 3232403 | 4591599 | 14607010 | 0.4823 | 1558836 |
| TOTAL | 9481470 |
At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9481470 - 10015411 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Paladina Davita to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.
Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Paladina Davita has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Paladina Davita can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.
In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Paladina Davita, then the stock price of the Paladina Davita should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.
In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.
Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Paladina Davita should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –
What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.
What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.
What can impact the cash flow of the project.
What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.
Understanding of risks involved in the project.
Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.
Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.
Joseph Fuller, David J. Collis, Matthew Preble (2018), "Intrapreneurship at DaVita HealthCare Partners Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.
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