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Gazi (A): The past, present, and future of an international Albanian entrepreneur Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Gazi (A): The past, present, and future of an international Albanian entrepreneur case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Gazi (A): The past, present, and future of an international Albanian entrepreneur case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Derek F. Abell. The Gazi (A): The past, present, and future of an international Albanian entrepreneur (referred as “Gazi's Gazi” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Emerging markets, Entrepreneurship, Financial analysis, Leadership, Leadership development, Organizational structure, Risk management, Succession planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Gazi (A): The past, present, and future of an international Albanian entrepreneur Case Study


Case A, the subject of this particular teaching note, traces Gazi's personal and business journey, and contains ample material to evaluate Gazi as a person, as an entrepreneur, and as a leader. Ostensibly, the case issue is the degree to which Gazi should now scale up from the approx. a??10 million of current revenues, but this issue is best set aside until the B case discussion. In fact, the B case includes substantial bottom-up information from each of Gazi's key managers allowing this scale-up question to be tackled from both top-down and bottom-up perspectives. The A case raises much more the question what does it take to be a successful and exemplary entrepreneur, and how, when, and from where such capacities are acquired. The case lends itself not only to a detailed discussion of Gazi's entrepreneurial capacities and their origins, but also prompts participants to ask themselves to which degree they themselves exhibit such capacities, and whether they can and should embark on an entrepreneurial career.


Case Authors : Derek F. Abell

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas : Emerging markets, Entrepreneurship, Financial analysis, Leadership, Leadership development, Organizational structure, Risk management, Succession planning




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Gazi (A): The past, present, and future of an international Albanian entrepreneur Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023426) -10023426 - -
Year 1 3459647 -6563779 3459647 0.9434 3263818
Year 2 3981169 -2582610 7440816 0.89 3543226
Year 3 3953308 1370698 11394124 0.8396 3319274
Year 4 3238976 4609674 14633100 0.7921 2565572
TOTAL 14633100 12691890


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2668464

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Gazi's Gazi have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Gazi's Gazi shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Gazi (A): The past, present, and future of an international Albanian entrepreneur

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Gazi's Gazi often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Gazi's Gazi needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023426) -10023426 - -
Year 1 3459647 -6563779 3459647 0.8696 3008389
Year 2 3981169 -2582610 7440816 0.7561 3010336
Year 3 3953308 1370698 11394124 0.6575 2599364
Year 4 3238976 4609674 14633100 0.5718 1851895
TOTAL 10469984


The Net NPV after 4 years is 446558

(10469984 - 10023426 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023426) -10023426 - -
Year 1 3459647 -6563779 3459647 0.8333 2883039
Year 2 3981169 -2582610 7440816 0.6944 2764701
Year 3 3953308 1370698 11394124 0.5787 2287794
Year 4 3238976 4609674 14633100 0.4823 1562006
TOTAL 9497540


The Net NPV after 4 years is -525886

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9497540 - 10023426 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Gazi's Gazi to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Gazi's Gazi has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Gazi's Gazi can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Gazi's Gazi, then the stock price of the Gazi's Gazi should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Gazi's Gazi should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Derek F. Abell (2018), "Gazi (A): The past, present, and future of an international Albanian entrepreneur Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.