Flybaboo: How High Can It Go? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Flybaboo: How High Can It Go? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Flybaboo: How High Can It Go? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Dinos Constantinou, Benoit Leleux, Henri Bourgeois. The Flybaboo: How High Can It Go? (referred as “Flybaboo Proposition” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Competitive strategy, Entrepreneurship, Sales.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Flybaboo: How High Can It Go? Case Study

The story of Flybaboo, a niche airline start-up in a crowded market, provides students with the opportunity to examine topics such as market entry, competitive strategy, product differentiation and positioning, branding, and entrepreneurship. Flybaboo is a fascinating example of a new entrant in a mature industry undergoing radical change, where the usual challenges facing entrepreneurial activities are compounded by a complex regulatory environment and potential competitive threats from both an established (but declining) incumbent and rival start-ups. The founder of the company cleverly combined fairly well-established business practices into a new customer "value proposition" with high appeal to a service-minded client niche. In other words, the case supports the concept that a novel value proposition can be created without "unique" components, with the perceived value coming mostly from a unique combination of non-novel components. The case serves as an ideal base for discussing the issues such as: 1) conducting an industry analysis in a rapidly changing environment, 2) understanding the elements of a customer value proposition, 3) establishing and maintaining a competitive advantage.

Case Authors : Dinos Constantinou, Benoit Leleux, Henri Bourgeois

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas : Competitive strategy, Entrepreneurship, Sales

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Flybaboo: How High Can It Go? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005140)	-10005140	-	-
Year 1	3455350	-6549790	3455350	0.9434	3259764
Year 2	3979705	-2570085	7435055	0.89	3541923
Year 3	3963441	1393356	11398496	0.8396	3327781
Year 4	3239866	4633222	14638362	0.7921	2566277
TOTAL			14638362		12695746

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2690606

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Flybaboo Proposition shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Flybaboo Proposition have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Flybaboo: How High Can It Go?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Flybaboo Proposition often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Flybaboo Proposition needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005140)	-10005140	-	-
Year 1	3455350	-6549790	3455350	0.8696	3004652
Year 2	3979705	-2570085	7435055	0.7561	3009229
Year 3	3963441	1393356	11398496	0.6575	2606027
Year 4	3239866	4633222	14638362	0.5718	1852404
TOTAL					10472312

The Net NPV after 4 years is 467172

(10472312 - 10005140 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005140)	-10005140	-	-
Year 1	3455350	-6549790	3455350	0.8333	2879458
Year 2	3979705	-2570085	7435055	0.6944	2763684
Year 3	3963441	1393356	11398496	0.5787	2293658
Year 4	3239866	4633222	14638362	0.4823	1562435
TOTAL					9499236

The Net NPV after 4 years is -505904

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9499236 - 10005140 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Flybaboo Proposition to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Flybaboo Proposition has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Flybaboo Proposition can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Flybaboo Proposition, then the stock price of the Flybaboo Proposition should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Flybaboo Proposition should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Flybaboo: How High Can It Go?

References & Further Readings

Dinos Constantinou, Benoit Leleux, Henri Bourgeois (2018), "Flybaboo: How High Can It Go? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.