×




Manchester Bidwell Corporation: The Replication Question Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Manchester Bidwell Corporation: The Replication Question case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Manchester Bidwell Corporation: The Replication Question case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Toby Stuart, G. Felda Hardymon, James L. Heskett, Ann Leamon. The Manchester Bidwell Corporation: The Replication Question (referred as “Manchester Bidwell” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Manchester Bidwell Corporation: The Replication Question Case Study


Bill Strickland, CEO of Manchester Bidwell Corporation, must decide the best way to replicate his innovative, award-winning approach to curing poverty. Manchester Bidwell's approach, which provides both adult job-training tuned to fill the needs of local industries and after-school art instruction for at-risk youth, has proven highly effective over the 40 years Strickland has operated it. He wants to replicate this strategy across 100 or 200 cities, but progress has been slow. Is the current intensive approach correct, or should he change it? What would be at risk? How can he best provide his "cure for poverty" to the greatest number of communities?


Case Authors : Toby Stuart, G. Felda Hardymon, James L. Heskett, Ann Leamon

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas :




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Manchester Bidwell Corporation: The Replication Question Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10024542) -10024542 - -
Year 1 3444217 -6580325 3444217 0.9434 3249261
Year 2 3978377 -2601948 7422594 0.89 3540741
Year 3 3964542 1362594 11387136 0.8396 3328706
Year 4 3225951 4588545 14613087 0.7921 2555255
TOTAL 14613087 12673964


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2649422

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Manchester Bidwell shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Manchester Bidwell have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Manchester Bidwell Corporation: The Replication Question

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Manchester Bidwell often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Manchester Bidwell needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10024542) -10024542 - -
Year 1 3444217 -6580325 3444217 0.8696 2994971
Year 2 3978377 -2601948 7422594 0.7561 3008225
Year 3 3964542 1362594 11387136 0.6575 2606751
Year 4 3225951 4588545 14613087 0.5718 1844448
TOTAL 10454395


The Net NPV after 4 years is 429853

(10454395 - 10024542 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10024542) -10024542 - -
Year 1 3444217 -6580325 3444217 0.8333 2870181
Year 2 3978377 -2601948 7422594 0.6944 2762762
Year 3 3964542 1362594 11387136 0.5787 2294295
Year 4 3225951 4588545 14613087 0.4823 1555725
TOTAL 9482963


The Net NPV after 4 years is -541579

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9482963 - 10024542 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Manchester Bidwell to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Manchester Bidwell has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Manchester Bidwell can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Manchester Bidwell, then the stock price of the Manchester Bidwell should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Manchester Bidwell should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Toby Stuart, G. Felda Hardymon, James L. Heskett, Ann Leamon (2018), "Manchester Bidwell Corporation: The Replication Question Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.