Parker Petroleum in Crisis Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Parker Petroleum in Crisis case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Parker Petroleum in Crisis case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by David Beim. The Parker Petroleum in Crisis (referred as “Parker's Parker” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Corporate communications, Ethics, Mergers & acquisitions, Risk management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Parker Petroleum in Crisis Case Study

Parker Petroleum's board has given a special task force 24 hours to come up with solutions to trouble on several fronts. Plans for investing $4 billion in a new petroleum refinery in Jumandia are at risk after local residents rioted, alleging environmental damage. Political pressure is also heating up after Jumandia's opposition candidate claimed Parker's CEO was complicit in a $5 million bribe paid to the country's current regime. At the same time, an activist hedge fund has bought 15% of Parker's stock and is pressuring the company to exit its Jumandian investments. In this case students take on the special task force's challenge to make recommendations on how the board should deal with the crises.

Case Authors : David Beim

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Corporate communications, Ethics, Mergers & acquisitions, Risk management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Parker Petroleum in Crisis Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010465)	-10010465	-	-
Year 1	3447868	-6562597	3447868	0.9434	3252706
Year 2	3974682	-2587915	7422550	0.89	3537453
Year 3	3955325	1367410	11377875	0.8396	3320967
Year 4	3239694	4607104	14617569	0.7921	2566141
TOTAL			14617569		12677267

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2666802

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Parker's Parker have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Parker's Parker shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Parker Petroleum in Crisis

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Parker's Parker often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Parker's Parker needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010465)	-10010465	-	-
Year 1	3447868	-6562597	3447868	0.8696	2998146
Year 2	3974682	-2587915	7422550	0.7561	3005431
Year 3	3955325	1367410	11377875	0.6575	2600690
Year 4	3239694	4607104	14617569	0.5718	1852306
TOTAL					10456573

The Net NPV after 4 years is 446108

(10456573 - 10010465 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010465)	-10010465	-	-
Year 1	3447868	-6562597	3447868	0.8333	2873223
Year 2	3974682	-2587915	7422550	0.6944	2760196
Year 3	3955325	1367410	11377875	0.5787	2288961
Year 4	3239694	4607104	14617569	0.4823	1562352
TOTAL					9484733

The Net NPV after 4 years is -525732

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9484733 - 10010465 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Parker's Parker to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Parker's Parker has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Parker's Parker can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Parker's Parker, then the stock price of the Parker's Parker should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Parker's Parker should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Parker Petroleum in Crisis

References & Further Readings

David Beim (2018), "Parker Petroleum in Crisis Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.