The Hormone Therapy Controversy: What Makes Reliable Evidence Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The Hormone Therapy Controversy: What Makes Reliable Evidence case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The Hormone Therapy Controversy: What Makes Reliable Evidence case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Amitabh Chandra, Anjani Datla. The The Hormone Therapy Controversy: What Makes Reliable Evidence (referred as “Hormone Therapy” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Health, Market research, Policy, Research & development.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The Hormone Therapy Controversy: What Makes Reliable Evidence Case Study

For nearly two decades, the leading evidence on hormone therapy was based on findings from observational studies like the Nurses' Health Study. In 1985, researchers at Nurses' Health Study confirmed that postmenopausal women who took estrogen had lower rates of heart disease than women who had never taken the hormone. These influential findings helped drive the surge in hormone prescriptions in the 1980s and 1990s. But in 2002, in a stunning turnaround, researchers for a randomized clinical trial called the Women's Health Initiative reported that hormone therapy, in fact, increased the risk of heart disease and stroke among postmenopausal women. Almost overnight, prescriptions for hormone treatment plummeted. For millions of women who were either abruptly taken off hormones or denied treatment, though, the feeling of confusion and anguish remained. At the heart of the hormone therapy controversy was the fact that two different research approaches-observational studies and randomized experiments-had arrived at diametrically opposite results, once again raising questions about what constituted reliable evidence. Case Number 2005.0

Case Authors : Amitabh Chandra, Anjani Datla

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Health, Market research, Policy, Research & development

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The Hormone Therapy Controversy: What Makes Reliable Evidence Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009904)	-10009904	-	-
Year 1	3461741	-6548163	3461741	0.9434	3265793
Year 2	3978359	-2569804	7440100	0.89	3540725
Year 3	3946754	1376950	11386854	0.8396	3313771
Year 4	3224762	4601712	14611616	0.7921	2554314
TOTAL			14611616		12674603

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2664699

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Hormone Therapy shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Hormone Therapy have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The Hormone Therapy Controversy: What Makes Reliable Evidence

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Hormone Therapy often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Hormone Therapy needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009904)	-10009904	-	-
Year 1	3461741	-6548163	3461741	0.8696	3010210
Year 2	3978359	-2569804	7440100	0.7561	3008211
Year 3	3946754	1376950	11386854	0.6575	2595055
Year 4	3224762	4601712	14611616	0.5718	1843768
TOTAL					10457243

The Net NPV after 4 years is 447339

(10457243 - 10009904 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009904)	-10009904	-	-
Year 1	3461741	-6548163	3461741	0.8333	2884784
Year 2	3978359	-2569804	7440100	0.6944	2762749
Year 3	3946754	1376950	11386854	0.5787	2284001
Year 4	3224762	4601712	14611616	0.4823	1555151
TOTAL					9486686

The Net NPV after 4 years is -523218

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9486686 - 10009904 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Hormone Therapy to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Hormone Therapy has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Hormone Therapy can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Hormone Therapy, then the stock price of the Hormone Therapy should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Hormone Therapy should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The Hormone Therapy Controversy: What Makes Reliable Evidence

References & Further Readings

Amitabh Chandra, Anjani Datla (2018), "The Hormone Therapy Controversy: What Makes Reliable Evidence Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.