Peking University People's Hospital: An IT-Led Upgrading in the New Healthcare Reform Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Peking University People's Hospital: An IT-Led Upgrading in the New Healthcare Reform case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Peking University People's Hospital: An IT-Led Upgrading in the New Healthcare Reform case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by F. McFarlan, Ning Jia, Weiqi Liu, Hong Zhang. The Peking University People's Hospital: An IT-Led Upgrading in the New Healthcare Reform (referred as “Pkuph Shan” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Peking University People's Hospital: An IT-Led Upgrading in the New Healthcare Reform Case Study

In 2006, Dr. WANG Shan was appointed as the president of Peking University People's Hospital (hereafter referred to as "PKUPH"), a large class 3A public hospital in China. Prior to his appointment, PKUPH had experienced three consecutive years of financial losses due to poor internal management. No standard operating procedure was established to prescribe the level of activity expected from each responsible person or decision units, and the amount of resources that a responsible party should use in achieving that level of activity. No formal management control systems were installed to collect, process, analyse accounting (particularly cost-related) information and provide timely feedback to the management. As a result, actual costs significantly exceeded budget. Loopholes in the system stemming from loose monitoring and control gave rise to severe agency problems. To turn the situation around, WANG Shan launched an IT-led management reform. By 2012, the reform has yielded significant and positive results. Annual revenues and profits increased significantly. Management and operational efficiency was also significantly enhanced. This case is intended to demonstrate how an institutionally complex organization (particularly hospitals) can overcome institutional challenges and upgrade management with an IT-oriented strategy.

Case Authors : F. McFarlan, Ning Jia, Weiqi Liu, Hong Zhang

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Peking University People's Hospital: An IT-Led Upgrading in the New Healthcare Reform Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005130)	-10005130	-	-
Year 1	3465659	-6539471	3465659	0.9434	3269490
Year 2	3973702	-2565769	7439361	0.89	3536581
Year 3	3949554	1383785	11388915	0.8396	3316122
Year 4	3232094	4615879	14621009	0.7921	2560121
TOTAL			14621009		12682313

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2677183

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Pkuph Shan shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Pkuph Shan have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Peking University People's Hospital: An IT-Led Upgrading in the New Healthcare Reform

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Pkuph Shan often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Pkuph Shan needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005130)	-10005130	-	-
Year 1	3465659	-6539471	3465659	0.8696	3013617
Year 2	3973702	-2565769	7439361	0.7561	3004690
Year 3	3949554	1383785	11388915	0.6575	2596896
Year 4	3232094	4615879	14621009	0.5718	1847960
TOTAL					10463162

The Net NPV after 4 years is 458032

(10463162 - 10005130 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005130)	-10005130	-	-
Year 1	3465659	-6539471	3465659	0.8333	2888049
Year 2	3973702	-2565769	7439361	0.6944	2759515
Year 3	3949554	1383785	11388915	0.5787	2285622
Year 4	3232094	4615879	14621009	0.4823	1558687
TOTAL					9491873

The Net NPV after 4 years is -513257

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9491873 - 10005130 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Pkuph Shan to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Pkuph Shan has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Pkuph Shan can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Pkuph Shan, then the stock price of the Pkuph Shan should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Pkuph Shan should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Peking University People's Hospital: An IT-Led Upgrading in the New Healthcare Reform

References & Further Readings

F. McFarlan, Ning Jia, Weiqi Liu, Hong Zhang (2018), "Peking University People's Hospital: An IT-Led Upgrading in the New Healthcare Reform Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.