×




Richard Jenkins at SciMat Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Richard Jenkins at SciMat case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Richard Jenkins at SciMat case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by John J. Gabarro, Thomas J. DeLong, Jevan Soo. The Richard Jenkins at SciMat (referred as “Scimat Jenkins” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Leadership, Organizational culture, Organizational structure.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Richard Jenkins at SciMat Case Study


Written from the point of view of Richard Jenkins, the Executive Vice-President of Medical Devices at SciMat. Presents his reflections on the series of events leading to the firing of one of SciMat's general managers, Erik Peterson. A redisguised and updated version of earlier case 494-113.


Case Authors : John J. Gabarro, Thomas J. DeLong, Jevan Soo

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Leadership, Organizational culture, Organizational structure




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Richard Jenkins at SciMat Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028689) -10028689 - -
Year 1 3470234 -6558455 3470234 0.9434 3273806
Year 2 3965369 -2593086 7435603 0.89 3529164
Year 3 3936376 1343290 11371979 0.8396 3305057
Year 4 3226128 4569418 14598107 0.7921 2555396
TOTAL 14598107 12663423




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2634734

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Scimat Jenkins have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Scimat Jenkins shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Richard Jenkins at SciMat

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Scimat Jenkins often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Scimat Jenkins needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028689) -10028689 - -
Year 1 3470234 -6558455 3470234 0.8696 3017595
Year 2 3965369 -2593086 7435603 0.7561 2998389
Year 3 3936376 1343290 11371979 0.6575 2588231
Year 4 3226128 4569418 14598107 0.5718 1844549
TOTAL 10448764


The Net NPV after 4 years is 420075

(10448764 - 10028689 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028689) -10028689 - -
Year 1 3470234 -6558455 3470234 0.8333 2891862
Year 2 3965369 -2593086 7435603 0.6944 2753728
Year 3 3936376 1343290 11371979 0.5787 2277995
Year 4 3226128 4569418 14598107 0.4823 1555810
TOTAL 9479396


The Net NPV after 4 years is -549293

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9479396 - 10028689 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Scimat Jenkins to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Scimat Jenkins has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Scimat Jenkins can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Scimat Jenkins, then the stock price of the Scimat Jenkins should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Scimat Jenkins should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Richard Jenkins at SciMat

References & Further Readings

John J. Gabarro, Thomas J. DeLong, Jevan Soo (2018), "Richard Jenkins at SciMat Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


Comba Telecom Systems SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Technology , Communications Equipment


Lingbao Gold Co SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Basic Materials , Metal Mining


Huafang Co Ltd SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Consumer Cyclical , Apparel/Accessories


Jiangsu Linyang Energy SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Technology , Electronic Instr. & Controls


Eterindo Wahanatama SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Basic Materials , Chemicals - Plastics & Rubber


Shenzhou Int SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Consumer Cyclical , Apparel/Accessories


Innovative Food Hldg SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Consumer/Non-Cyclical , Food Processing


Handsman SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Services , Retail (Home Improvement)


Wincanton SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Services , Business Services


Quest Solution SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Technology , Computer Services