Issa Baluch and the African Agribusiness Knowledge and Innovation Leadership Initiative (AKILI) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Issa Baluch and the African Agribusiness Knowledge and Innovation Leadership Initiative (AKILI) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Issa Baluch and the African Agribusiness Knowledge and Innovation Leadership Initiative (AKILI) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Renee Vuillaume. The Issa Baluch and the African Agribusiness Knowledge and Innovation Leadership Initiative (AKILI) (referred as “Akili Baluch” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Generational issues, Innovation, Knowledge management, Leadership, Strategy, Sustainability.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Issa Baluch and the African Agribusiness Knowledge and Innovation Leadership Initiative (AKILI) Case Study

A veteran of the freight forwarding industry, Issa Baluch wanted to transform the education space in Africa by introducing hands-on practical teaching in agriculture and agribusiness. In the summer of 2015 his vision of a practical learning institute for African agriculture workers had finally found its footing as the African Agribusiness Knowledge and Innovation Leadership Initiative (AKILI). Several African countries were interested in having AKILI branches; however, Baluch and his team were still working hard to design a concrete model for AKILI and figure out the best possible expansion strategy.

Case Authors : Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Renee Vuillaume

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Financial management, Generational issues, Innovation, Knowledge management, Leadership, Strategy, Sustainability

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Issa Baluch and the African Agribusiness Knowledge and Innovation Leadership Initiative (AKILI) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013835)	-10013835	-	-
Year 1	3456379	-6557456	3456379	0.9434	3260735
Year 2	3953741	-2603715	7410120	0.89	3518815
Year 3	3952116	1348401	11362236	0.8396	3318273
Year 4	3222232	4570633	14584468	0.7921	2552310
TOTAL			14584468		12650133

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2636298

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Akili Baluch have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Akili Baluch shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Issa Baluch and the African Agribusiness Knowledge and Innovation Leadership Initiative (AKILI)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Akili Baluch often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Akili Baluch needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013835)	-10013835	-	-
Year 1	3456379	-6557456	3456379	0.8696	3005547
Year 2	3953741	-2603715	7410120	0.7561	2989596
Year 3	3952116	1348401	11362236	0.6575	2598580
Year 4	3222232	4570633	14584468	0.5718	1842322
TOTAL					10436045

The Net NPV after 4 years is 422210

(10436045 - 10013835 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013835)	-10013835	-	-
Year 1	3456379	-6557456	3456379	0.8333	2880316
Year 2	3953741	-2603715	7410120	0.6944	2745653
Year 3	3952116	1348401	11362236	0.5787	2287104
Year 4	3222232	4570633	14584468	0.4823	1553931
TOTAL					9467005

The Net NPV after 4 years is -546830

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9467005 - 10013835 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Akili Baluch to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Akili Baluch has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Akili Baluch can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Akili Baluch, then the stock price of the Akili Baluch should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Akili Baluch should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Issa Baluch and the African Agribusiness Knowledge and Innovation Leadership Initiative (AKILI)

References & Further Readings

Rosabeth Moss Kanter, Renee Vuillaume (2018), "Issa Baluch and the African Agribusiness Knowledge and Innovation Leadership Initiative (AKILI) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.