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Din Tai Fung: The Art of the Dumpling Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Din Tai Fung: The Art of the Dumpling case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Din Tai Fung: The Art of the Dumpling case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by H. Brian Hwarng, Xuchuan Yuan. The Din Tai Fung: The Art of the Dumpling (referred as “Din Overseas” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Din Tai Fung: The Art of the Dumpling Case Study


AWARD WINNING CASE - This case won the Best Teaching Case Studies Award at the Decision Sciences Institute (DSI), 2015. In 2014, as one of the most well-known Taiwanese cuisine brands, Din Tai Fung operated more than 100 restaurants around the world. Attracted by its signature xialongbao (soup dumpling), long queues of customers at Din Tai Fung's storefront were a common sight. Requests for partnerships for global expansion were constantly arriving. Customer feedback from overseas, however, suggested a notable gap in service quality between the overseas and Taiwanese branches. The demand for support by overseas branches had also surged significantly due to the fast pace of growth in recent years. The company's chief executive officer had deferred his plan to open the 10th branch in Taiwan. Nevertheless, plans to open new branches in overseas markets were enthusiastically evaluated by existing partners. Two new potential partnership offers from Dubai and the Philippines were being aggressively pursued. What was the best way to cope with the increasing number of requests for support from overseas branches and to ensure high quality? Should Din Tai Fung approve the two overseas offers for partnership that seemed promising? What was the best overseas expansion strategy? H. Brian Hwarng is affiliated with National University of Singapore.


Case Authors : H. Brian Hwarng, Xuchuan Yuan

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Supply chain




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Din Tai Fung: The Art of the Dumpling Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018240) -10018240 - -
Year 1 3450188 -6568052 3450188 0.9434 3254894
Year 2 3968056 -2599996 7418244 0.89 3531556
Year 3 3942629 1342633 11360873 0.8396 3310307
Year 4 3235809 4578442 14596682 0.7921 2563064
TOTAL 14596682 12659821




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2641581

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Din Overseas shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Din Overseas have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Din Tai Fung: The Art of the Dumpling

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Din Overseas often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Din Overseas needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018240) -10018240 - -
Year 1 3450188 -6568052 3450188 0.8696 3000163
Year 2 3968056 -2599996 7418244 0.7561 3000420
Year 3 3942629 1342633 11360873 0.6575 2592343
Year 4 3235809 4578442 14596682 0.5718 1850084
TOTAL 10443011


The Net NPV after 4 years is 424771

(10443011 - 10018240 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018240) -10018240 - -
Year 1 3450188 -6568052 3450188 0.8333 2875157
Year 2 3968056 -2599996 7418244 0.6944 2755594
Year 3 3942629 1342633 11360873 0.5787 2281614
Year 4 3235809 4578442 14596682 0.4823 1560479
TOTAL 9472844


The Net NPV after 4 years is -545396

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9472844 - 10018240 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Din Overseas to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Din Overseas has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Din Overseas can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Din Overseas, then the stock price of the Din Overseas should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Din Overseas should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Din Tai Fung: The Art of the Dumpling

References & Further Readings

H. Brian Hwarng, Xuchuan Yuan (2018), "Din Tai Fung: The Art of the Dumpling Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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