Hoffmann-La Roche: Pricing the Zelboraf Melanoma Treatment for Canada Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Hoffmann-La Roche: Pricing the Zelboraf Melanoma Treatment for Canada case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Hoffmann-La Roche: Pricing the Zelboraf Melanoma Treatment for Canada case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mark Zbaracki, Jedy Wang. The Hoffmann-La Roche: Pricing the Zelboraf Melanoma Treatment for Canada (referred as “Zelboraf Roche” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Hoffmann-La Roche: Pricing the Zelboraf Melanoma Treatment for Canada Case Study

The Canadian brand manager of Zelboraf had to decide how to introduce and price Zelboraf in the Canadian market. Zelboraf was a breakthrough discovery in treatment for melanoma cancer patients. Hoffmann-La Roche (Roche) began developing Zelboraf in 2005. During the clinical trials, the drug yielded such positive results in targeting late-stage (metastatic) melanoma cancer that Roche ended clinical trials early in order to expedite FDA approval and market launch. A competitor was developing a drug-Dabrafenib-that targeted the same segment of patients with B-RAF genes. It was unclear if this specific market segment could support two similar products. It was also unclear whether Dabrafenib's Canadian market launch would affect the likelihood that Zelboraf got on the approved drug list to secure government reimbursement. The brand manager and her team also needed to determine the right price point for Zelboraf. Roche had to set a price that ensured profitability, but did not compromise Zelboraf's competitive position.

Case Authors : Mark Zbaracki, Jedy Wang

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Hoffmann-La Roche: Pricing the Zelboraf Melanoma Treatment for Canada Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024752)	-10024752	-	-
Year 1	3468172	-6556580	3468172	0.9434	3271860
Year 2	3969401	-2587179	7437573	0.89	3532753
Year 3	3945181	1358002	11382754	0.8396	3312450
Year 4	3234596	4592598	14617350	0.7921	2562103
TOTAL			14617350		12679166

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2654414

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Zelboraf Roche shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Zelboraf Roche have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Hoffmann-La Roche: Pricing the Zelboraf Melanoma Treatment for Canada

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Zelboraf Roche often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Zelboraf Roche needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024752)	-10024752	-	-
Year 1	3468172	-6556580	3468172	0.8696	3015802
Year 2	3969401	-2587179	7437573	0.7561	3001437
Year 3	3945181	1358002	11382754	0.6575	2594021
Year 4	3234596	4592598	14617350	0.5718	1849391
TOTAL					10460650

The Net NPV after 4 years is 435898

(10460650 - 10024752 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024752)	-10024752	-	-
Year 1	3468172	-6556580	3468172	0.8333	2890143
Year 2	3969401	-2587179	7437573	0.6944	2756528
Year 3	3945181	1358002	11382754	0.5787	2283091
Year 4	3234596	4592598	14617350	0.4823	1559894
TOTAL					9489657

The Net NPV after 4 years is -535095

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9489657 - 10024752 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Zelboraf Roche to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Zelboraf Roche has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Zelboraf Roche can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Zelboraf Roche, then the stock price of the Zelboraf Roche should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Zelboraf Roche should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Hoffmann-La Roche: Pricing the Zelboraf Melanoma Treatment for Canada

References & Further Readings

Mark Zbaracki, Jedy Wang (2018), "Hoffmann-La Roche: Pricing the Zelboraf Melanoma Treatment for Canada Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.