Compaq Computer Corp.: The Dell Challenge Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Compaq Computer Corp.: The Dell Challenge case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Compaq Computer Corp.: The Dell Challenge case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Adrian B. Ryans, Mark Vandenbosch. The Compaq Computer Corp.: The Dell Challenge (referred as “Dell Compaq” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Leadership, Marketing.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Compaq Computer Corp.: The Dell Challenge Case Study

The new CEO of Compaq Computer, the world's second largest computer company, is facing some difficult decisions about how to combat the increasing threat posed by Dell Computer Corp. This case describes the strategic moves made by Compaq in the late 1990s under the leadership of a previous CEO who was dismissed by Compaq's board earlier in the year. Also describes the history of Dell Computer and the evolution of the Dell Direct model. Compaq's new CEO faces some major issues, one of which is the resolution of the channel issues, particularly in the commercial personal computing segment. It is clear he faces some very tough strategic and marketing choices. The power of information technology and standards that have allowed Dell to build a powerful ecosystem with its customers, suppliers, and complementers are illustrated. With the support of these other players, Dell has been able to topple one of the great companies of the late 20th century from its leadership position. Also illustrates how difficult it is for a market leader to respond effectively to such a challenge.

Case Authors : Adrian B. Ryans, Mark Vandenbosch

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Leadership, Marketing

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Compaq Computer Corp.: The Dell Challenge Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004495)	-10004495	-	-
Year 1	3443797	-6560698	3443797	0.9434	3248865
Year 2	3967450	-2593248	7411247	0.89	3531016
Year 3	3946133	1352885	11357380	0.8396	3313249
Year 4	3224086	4576971	14581466	0.7921	2553778
TOTAL			14581466		12646909

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2642414

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Dell Compaq have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Dell Compaq shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Compaq Computer Corp.: The Dell Challenge

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Dell Compaq often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Dell Compaq needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004495)	-10004495	-	-
Year 1	3443797	-6560698	3443797	0.8696	2994606
Year 2	3967450	-2593248	7411247	0.7561	2999962
Year 3	3946133	1352885	11357380	0.6575	2594647
Year 4	3224086	4576971	14581466	0.5718	1843382
TOTAL					10432596

The Net NPV after 4 years is 428101

(10432596 - 10004495 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004495)	-10004495	-	-
Year 1	3443797	-6560698	3443797	0.8333	2869831
Year 2	3967450	-2593248	7411247	0.6944	2755174
Year 3	3946133	1352885	11357380	0.5787	2283642
Year 4	3224086	4576971	14581466	0.4823	1554825
TOTAL					9463472

The Net NPV after 4 years is -541023

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9463472 - 10004495 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Dell Compaq to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Dell Compaq has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Dell Compaq can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Dell Compaq, then the stock price of the Dell Compaq should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Dell Compaq should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Compaq Computer Corp.: The Dell Challenge

References & Further Readings

Adrian B. Ryans, Mark Vandenbosch (2018), "Compaq Computer Corp.: The Dell Challenge Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.