×




Lessons from Becoming a Data-Driven Organization Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Lessons from Becoming a Data-Driven Organization case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Lessons from Becoming a Data-Driven Organization case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by David Kiron. The Lessons from Becoming a Data-Driven Organization (referred as “Data Organizations” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Lessons from Becoming a Data-Driven Organization Case Study


This is an MIT Sloan Management Review Article. Organizations across the business spectrum are awakening to the transformative power of data and analytics. They are also coming to grips with the daunting difficulty of the task that lies before them. It's tough enough for many organizations to catalog and categorize the data at their disposal and devise the rules and processes for using it. It's even tougher to translate that data into tangible value. But it's not impossible, and many organizations, in both the private and public sectors, are learning how.


Case Authors : David Kiron

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas :




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Lessons from Becoming a Data-Driven Organization Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10012528) -10012528 - -
Year 1 3454950 -6557578 3454950 0.9434 3259387
Year 2 3965296 -2592282 7420246 0.89 3529099
Year 3 3963643 1371361 11383889 0.8396 3327951
Year 4 3251775 4623136 14635664 0.7921 2575710
TOTAL 14635664 12692148




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2679620

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Data Organizations shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Data Organizations have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Lessons from Becoming a Data-Driven Organization

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Data Organizations often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Data Organizations needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10012528) -10012528 - -
Year 1 3454950 -6557578 3454950 0.8696 3004304
Year 2 3965296 -2592282 7420246 0.7561 2998333
Year 3 3963643 1371361 11383889 0.6575 2606160
Year 4 3251775 4623136 14635664 0.5718 1859213
TOTAL 10468010


The Net NPV after 4 years is 455482

(10468010 - 10012528 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10012528) -10012528 - -
Year 1 3454950 -6557578 3454950 0.8333 2879125
Year 2 3965296 -2592282 7420246 0.6944 2753678
Year 3 3963643 1371361 11383889 0.5787 2293775
Year 4 3251775 4623136 14635664 0.4823 1568179
TOTAL 9494756


The Net NPV after 4 years is -517772

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9494756 - 10012528 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Data Organizations to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Data Organizations has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Data Organizations can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Data Organizations, then the stock price of the Data Organizations should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Data Organizations should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Lessons from Becoming a Data-Driven Organization

References & Further Readings

David Kiron (2018), "Lessons from Becoming a Data-Driven Organization Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


Titan Medical SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Healthcare , Biotechnology & Drugs


Saregama India Ltd SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Services , Printing & Publishing


Lict Corporation SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Services , Communications Services


Andrea Electronic Cp SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Consumer Cyclical , Audio & Video Equipment


Noida Toll Bridge SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Capital Goods , Construction Services


Engtex SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Basic Materials , Misc. Fabricated Products


Shanghai Yongli Belting SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Capital Goods , Misc. Capital Goods


Ebara ADR SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Capital Goods , Misc. Capital Goods


Tibet Urban Dev SWOT Analysis / TOWS Matrix

Capital Goods , Construction Services