Sinofert Holdings Limited: Urea Distribution Planning Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Sinofert Holdings Limited: Urea Distribution Planning case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Sinofert Holdings Limited: Urea Distribution Planning case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Peter C. Bell, Mehmet Begen, Duan Changshan, Fiona Yiu. The Sinofert Holdings Limited: Urea Distribution Planning (referred as “Urea Sinofert” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Sinofert Holdings Limited: Urea Distribution Planning Case Study

Sinofert Holdings Limited, the largest comprehensive fertilizer enterprise in China, is trying to improve the profitability of its urea business. The company has invested a great deal of time and money but still reported losses in 2007 and 2009 and only a small profit in 2008. Sinofert both manufactures urea and purchases it from external suppliers, as well as distributing it to the provinces. Manufacturing costs, transportation costs, market prices, demand forecasts and manufacturing constraints are all known. An optimal distribution plan using linear programming can be compared to the plan derived by Sinofert management. Substantial profitability increases are shown to be possible, although the optimization reveals some issues with contract constraints. If the company is to make its urea business profitable, it needs a fresh look and a change in the way of doing business. The company's chief analytics officer has been asked to look at the urea business and to provide recommendations to increase profitability.

Case Authors : Peter C. Bell, Mehmet Begen, Duan Changshan, Fiona Yiu

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Sinofert Holdings Limited: Urea Distribution Planning Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10022967)	-10022967	-	-
Year 1	3444571	-6578396	3444571	0.9434	3249595
Year 2	3968093	-2610303	7412664	0.89	3531589
Year 3	3956604	1346301	11369268	0.8396	3322041
Year 4	3227411	4573712	14596679	0.7921	2556412
TOTAL			14596679		12659637

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2636670

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Urea Sinofert shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Urea Sinofert have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Sinofert Holdings Limited: Urea Distribution Planning

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Urea Sinofert often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Urea Sinofert needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10022967)	-10022967	-	-
Year 1	3444571	-6578396	3444571	0.8696	2995279
Year 2	3968093	-2610303	7412664	0.7561	3000448
Year 3	3956604	1346301	11369268	0.6575	2601531
Year 4	3227411	4573712	14596679	0.5718	1845283
TOTAL					10442542

The Net NPV after 4 years is 419575

(10442542 - 10022967 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10022967)	-10022967	-	-
Year 1	3444571	-6578396	3444571	0.8333	2870476
Year 2	3968093	-2610303	7412664	0.6944	2755620
Year 3	3956604	1346301	11369268	0.5787	2289701
Year 4	3227411	4573712	14596679	0.4823	1556429
TOTAL					9472226

The Net NPV after 4 years is -550741

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9472226 - 10022967 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Urea Sinofert to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Urea Sinofert has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Urea Sinofert can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Urea Sinofert, then the stock price of the Urea Sinofert should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Urea Sinofert should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Sinofert Holdings Limited: Urea Distribution Planning

References & Further Readings

Peter C. Bell, Mehmet Begen, Duan Changshan, Fiona Yiu (2018), "Sinofert Holdings Limited: Urea Distribution Planning Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.