Ericsson: Leading in Times of Change Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Ericsson: Leading in Times of Change case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Ericsson: Leading in Times of Change case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Das Narayandas, Daniela Beyersdorfer. The Ericsson: Leading in Times of Change (referred as “Ericsson Swedish” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Leadership, Managing people.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Ericsson: Leading in Times of Change Case Study

To maximize their effectiveness, color cases should be printed in color.After its dramatic corporate turnaround, the Swedish telecom infrastructure company Ericsson hires a new CEO to bring the former Swedish flagship company back on track. Puts students in the shoes of Carl-Henric Svanberg, an industry outsider and CEO of locks group Assy Abloy, who does not hesitate a moment when he gets the call in early 2003. Looks back on the reasons for Ericsson's current situation and the recent restructuring programs that cut the company's staff and operating expenses in half. Presents Svanberg's vision for how to re-energize the ailing company and reach profitability once again, and gives students the opportunity to debate these issues.

Case Authors : Das Narayandas, Daniela Beyersdorfer

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Leadership, Managing people

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Ericsson: Leading in Times of Change Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004092)	-10004092	-	-
Year 1	3444018	-6560074	3444018	0.9434	3249074
Year 2	3976474	-2583600	7420492	0.89	3539048
Year 3	3941873	1358273	11362365	0.8396	3309673
Year 4	3242300	4600573	14604665	0.7921	2568205
TOTAL			14604665		12665999

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2661907

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ericsson Swedish have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ericsson Swedish shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Ericsson: Leading in Times of Change

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ericsson Swedish often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ericsson Swedish needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004092)	-10004092	-	-
Year 1	3444018	-6560074	3444018	0.8696	2994798
Year 2	3976474	-2583600	7420492	0.7561	3006786
Year 3	3941873	1358273	11362365	0.6575	2591845
Year 4	3242300	4600573	14604665	0.5718	1853796
TOTAL					10447225

The Net NPV after 4 years is 443133

(10447225 - 10004092 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004092)	-10004092	-	-
Year 1	3444018	-6560074	3444018	0.8333	2870015
Year 2	3976474	-2583600	7420492	0.6944	2761440
Year 3	3941873	1358273	11362365	0.5787	2281177
Year 4	3242300	4600573	14604665	0.4823	1563609
TOTAL					9476241

The Net NPV after 4 years is -527851

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9476241 - 10004092 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ericsson Swedish to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ericsson Swedish has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ericsson Swedish can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ericsson Swedish, then the stock price of the Ericsson Swedish should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ericsson Swedish should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Ericsson: Leading in Times of Change

References & Further Readings

Das Narayandas, Daniela Beyersdorfer (2018), "Ericsson: Leading in Times of Change Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.