Credit Suisse Group Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Credit Suisse Group case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Credit Suisse Group case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Ashish Nanda, Kelley Morrell. The Credit Suisse Group (referred as “Suisse Credit” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Growth strategy, International business, Leadership, Succession planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Credit Suisse Group Case Study

On September 19, 2002, Lukas Muhlemann announced that he would step down as chairman and CEO of the Credit Suisse Group, effective January 1, 2003. The bank had progressed from a small Swiss start-up 150 years ago to a global banking powerhouse. Over the past 5 years, it had grown rapidly in pursuit of Muhlemann's Allfinanz vision. However, 2002 had been a very difficult year. Its investment banking arm had been tarnished by scandal in a difficult business environment, the insurance arm had suffered considerable losses, and the stock price had dropped inexorably. Credit Suisse's new leadership was musing over the changes required to rejuvenate the group.

Case Authors : Ashish Nanda, Kelley Morrell

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Growth strategy, International business, Leadership, Succession planning

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Credit Suisse Group Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027471)	-10027471	-	-
Year 1	3468875	-6558596	3468875	0.9434	3272524
Year 2	3982533	-2576063	7451408	0.89	3544440
Year 3	3968551	1392488	11419959	0.8396	3332072
Year 4	3231795	4624283	14651754	0.7921	2559884
TOTAL			14651754		12708920

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2681449

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Suisse Credit have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Suisse Credit shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Credit Suisse Group

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Suisse Credit often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Suisse Credit needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027471)	-10027471	-	-
Year 1	3468875	-6558596	3468875	0.8696	3016413
Year 2	3982533	-2576063	7451408	0.7561	3011367
Year 3	3968551	1392488	11419959	0.6575	2609387
Year 4	3231795	4624283	14651754	0.5718	1847789
TOTAL					10484956

The Net NPV after 4 years is 457485

(10484956 - 10027471 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027471)	-10027471	-	-
Year 1	3468875	-6558596	3468875	0.8333	2890729
Year 2	3982533	-2576063	7451408	0.6944	2765648
Year 3	3968551	1392488	11419959	0.5787	2296615
Year 4	3231795	4624283	14651754	0.4823	1558543
TOTAL					9511535

The Net NPV after 4 years is -515936

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9511535 - 10027471 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Suisse Credit to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Suisse Credit has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Suisse Credit can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Suisse Credit, then the stock price of the Suisse Credit should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Suisse Credit should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Credit Suisse Group

References & Further Readings

Ashish Nanda, Kelley Morrell (2018), "Credit Suisse Group Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.