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Mayor Anthony Williams and Performance Management in Washington, DC Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Mayor Anthony Williams and Performance Management in Washington, DC case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Mayor Anthony Williams and Performance Management in Washington, DC case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Esther Scott. The Mayor Anthony Williams and Performance Management in Washington, DC (referred as “Williams City” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Innovation, Leadership, Policy, Project management, Reorganization, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Mayor Anthony Williams and Performance Management in Washington, DC Case Study


When Anthony Williams is elected mayor of Washington, DC in November 1998, he inherits a city that had been close to insolvency. Although its financial picture has improved, it has historically lacked the equipment and systems to deliver high-quality city services. Williams had won a convincing victory at the polls in part by emphasizing the need for improved service and accountability. He faces two challenges: both to improve the quality of city services and to devise a way to ensure voters are aware of the extent of the improvement. With both in mind, Williams and his top aides develop a new system to guide city government. The comprehensive performance measurement system requires all city departments to set measurable "scorecard" goals for improving the services they deliver-and to report regularly on their progress in meeting them. This case describes the design and implementation of the DC performance measurement system, with particular focus on several specific departments. The case is designed, specifically, to help students understand the difference between outputs and outcomes, a distinction reinforced by a review and assessment of the goals set by the city departments featured in the case. Data provided in exhibits provides a vehicle for reinforcing the output/outcome distinction-and the tendency of public sector agencies to see outputs as an end in themselves. HKS Case Number 1647.0


Case Authors : Esther Scott

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Innovation, Leadership, Policy, Project management, Reorganization, Strategic planning




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Mayor Anthony Williams and Performance Management in Washington, DC Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011073) -10011073 - -
Year 1 3446959 -6564114 3446959 0.9434 3251848
Year 2 3981647 -2582467 7428606 0.89 3543652
Year 3 3954644 1372177 11383250 0.8396 3320395
Year 4 3249242 4621419 14632492 0.7921 2573704
TOTAL 14632492 12689599


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2678526

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Williams City shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Williams City have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Mayor Anthony Williams and Performance Management in Washington, DC

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Williams City often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Williams City needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011073) -10011073 - -
Year 1 3446959 -6564114 3446959 0.8696 2997356
Year 2 3981647 -2582467 7428606 0.7561 3010697
Year 3 3954644 1372177 11383250 0.6575 2600243
Year 4 3249242 4621419 14632492 0.5718 1857765
TOTAL 10466060


The Net NPV after 4 years is 454987

(10466060 - 10011073 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011073) -10011073 - -
Year 1 3446959 -6564114 3446959 0.8333 2872466
Year 2 3981647 -2582467 7428606 0.6944 2765033
Year 3 3954644 1372177 11383250 0.5787 2288567
Year 4 3249242 4621419 14632492 0.4823 1566957
TOTAL 9493023


The Net NPV after 4 years is -518050

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9493023 - 10011073 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Williams City to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Williams City has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Williams City can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Williams City, then the stock price of the Williams City should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Williams City should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Esther Scott (2018), "Mayor Anthony Williams and Performance Management in Washington, DC Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.