Swedish Lottery Bonds Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Swedish Lottery Bonds case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Swedish Lottery Bonds case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by George Chacko, Peter Hecht, Vincent Dessain, Anders Sjoman. The Swedish Lottery Bonds (referred as “Lottery Bonds” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial analysis, Financial markets.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Swedish Lottery Bonds Case Study

Profiling nonsystematic risk for a bond investor, the case describes lottery bond issues by the Swedish National Debt Office (SNDO). Swedish lottery bonds are a specific type of financial fixed income instrument for Swedish retail investors. The distinctive feature of lottery bonds is that, unlike traditional institutional bonds, the normally guaranteed interest--the coupon--here only is paid as "wins" to bondholders selected in drawings. The case takes place in March 2003, when Anders Holmlund, head of analysis, is reviewing the proposal for the next lottery bond issue. While reviewing the features of the bond issue, he also considers the larger picture: What are the benefits to the Debt Office of issuing lottery bonds, especially in view of a recently launched Internet-based sales system that allows retail investors to take part in government bond auctions?

Case Authors : George Chacko, Peter Hecht, Vincent Dessain, Anders Sjoman

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial analysis, Financial markets

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Swedish Lottery Bonds Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004476)	-10004476	-	-
Year 1	3466785	-6537691	3466785	0.9434	3270552
Year 2	3969529	-2568162	7436314	0.89	3532867
Year 3	3944445	1376283	11380759	0.8396	3311832
Year 4	3241464	4617747	14622223	0.7921	2567543
TOTAL			14622223		12682794

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2678318

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Lottery Bonds have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Lottery Bonds shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Swedish Lottery Bonds

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Lottery Bonds often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Lottery Bonds needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004476)	-10004476	-	-
Year 1	3466785	-6537691	3466785	0.8696	3014596
Year 2	3969529	-2568162	7436314	0.7561	3001534
Year 3	3944445	1376283	11380759	0.6575	2593537
Year 4	3241464	4617747	14622223	0.5718	1853318
TOTAL					10462984

The Net NPV after 4 years is 458508

(10462984 - 10004476 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10004476)	-10004476	-	-
Year 1	3466785	-6537691	3466785	0.8333	2888988
Year 2	3969529	-2568162	7436314	0.6944	2756617
Year 3	3944445	1376283	11380759	0.5787	2282665
Year 4	3241464	4617747	14622223	0.4823	1563206
TOTAL					9491476

The Net NPV after 4 years is -513000

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9491476 - 10004476 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Lottery Bonds to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Lottery Bonds has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Lottery Bonds can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Lottery Bonds, then the stock price of the Lottery Bonds should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Lottery Bonds should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Swedish Lottery Bonds

References & Further Readings

George Chacko, Peter Hecht, Vincent Dessain, Anders Sjoman (2018), "Swedish Lottery Bonds Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.