The Twin Pillars of Effective Leadership Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The Twin Pillars of Effective Leadership case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The Twin Pillars of Effective Leadership case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Brian Leggett, Conor Neill. The The Twin Pillars of Effective Leadership (referred as “Hammer Magnet” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Motivating people, Organizational culture, Psychology, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The Twin Pillars of Effective Leadership Case Study

During periods of crisis or disenchantment, charismatic leaders emerge because they offer an alternative to the uncertainty of the times. Such was the case in the 1980s with Ronald Reagan, whose clear message and emotional style held across-the-board appeal and provided a sense of certainty after years of political and social turbulence. Using case studies of prominent leaders of the past 50 years, the authors explore the keys of effective leadership. In business as in politics, managers can use the challenges of the current uncertain times to inspire others and lead change. To do this, they need two important tools: the magnet and the hammer. Magnet actions include vision, storytelling, charismatic speaking and role modeling, which create a pull toward a destination. Hammer actions include direct orders, threats, control systems, hiring and promotions, job definition and financial incentives that drive change directly. Four practices that will help leaders develop skill with these tools are: developing a personal vision; articulating that vision in a way that connects powerfully with your audience; following through on your promises; and then making sure everyone else fulfills their part of the bargain. The authors offer practical tips to help managers go further, and urge them to put their magnet and hammer into practice in various non-work settings, too. By following the examples of yesterday's leaders, you can become a visionary leader of tomorrow.

Case Authors : Brian Leggett, Conor Neill

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Motivating people, Organizational culture, Psychology, Strategy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The Twin Pillars of Effective Leadership Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007372)	-10007372	-	-
Year 1	3461576	-6545796	3461576	0.9434	3265638
Year 2	3962066	-2583730	7423642	0.89	3526225
Year 3	3945472	1361742	11369114	0.8396	3312694
Year 4	3247834	4609576	14616948	0.7921	2572589
TOTAL			14616948		12677145

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2669773

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Hammer Magnet have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Hammer Magnet shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The Twin Pillars of Effective Leadership

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Hammer Magnet often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Hammer Magnet needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007372)	-10007372	-	-
Year 1	3461576	-6545796	3461576	0.8696	3010066
Year 2	3962066	-2583730	7423642	0.7561	2995891
Year 3	3945472	1361742	11369114	0.6575	2594212
Year 4	3247834	4609576	14616948	0.5718	1856960
TOTAL					10457129

The Net NPV after 4 years is 449757

(10457129 - 10007372 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007372)	-10007372	-	-
Year 1	3461576	-6545796	3461576	0.8333	2884647
Year 2	3962066	-2583730	7423642	0.6944	2751435
Year 3	3945472	1361742	11369114	0.5787	2283259
Year 4	3247834	4609576	14616948	0.4823	1566278
TOTAL					9485619

The Net NPV after 4 years is -521753

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485619 - 10007372 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Hammer Magnet to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Hammer Magnet has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Hammer Magnet can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Hammer Magnet, then the stock price of the Hammer Magnet should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Hammer Magnet should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The Twin Pillars of Effective Leadership

References & Further Readings

Brian Leggett, Conor Neill (2018), "The Twin Pillars of Effective Leadership Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.