Getting Squeezed Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Getting Squeezed case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Getting Squeezed case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Kenneth Winston. The Getting Squeezed (referred as “Sasc Incidents” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Demographics, Ethics, Government, Organizational structure, Public relations.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Getting Squeezed Case Study

The executive assistant to the Army Chief of Staff prepares the nomination forms for all Army officers eligible for promotion, which are then submitted to the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) for approval and later confirmation by the Senate. During the officer's tenure, a SASC investigation reveals that serious racial incidents have occurred at four military bases. In response, the SASC establishes new guidelines for the promotion process, requiring a disclosure statement outlining any involvement or allegations of involvement in racial incidents, whether substantiated or not. The statement must also include any incidents involving the nominee's subordinates. Although the officer and the Chief of Staff have developed a relationship of mutual respect and admiration, on this issue they disagree. The officer believes that all information should be supplied to the SASC as required. The Chief has utter disdain for the guidelines, since even unproven allegations must be reported, and thinks it is unreasonable to hold superiors accountable for subordinates. The officer wants to preserve his relationship with his superior, yet does not want to engage in any wrongdoing. Under pressure, he chooses a strategy of outward compliance to the guidelines while knowing that his reports will be altered by the Chief before their submission to the SASC. HKS Case Number 1458.0

Case Authors : Kenneth Winston

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Demographics, Ethics, Government, Organizational structure, Public relations

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Getting Squeezed Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009140)	-10009140	-	-
Year 1	3466334	-6542806	3466334	0.9434	3270126
Year 2	3974650	-2568156	7440984	0.89	3537424
Year 3	3956755	1388599	11397739	0.8396	3322168
Year 4	3239981	4628580	14637720	0.7921	2566368
TOTAL			14637720		12696087

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2686947

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Sasc Incidents shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Sasc Incidents have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Getting Squeezed

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Sasc Incidents often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Sasc Incidents needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009140)	-10009140	-	-
Year 1	3466334	-6542806	3466334	0.8696	3014203
Year 2	3974650	-2568156	7440984	0.7561	3005406
Year 3	3956755	1388599	11397739	0.6575	2601631
Year 4	3239981	4628580	14637720	0.5718	1852470
TOTAL					10473710

The Net NPV after 4 years is 464570

(10473710 - 10009140 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009140)	-10009140	-	-
Year 1	3466334	-6542806	3466334	0.8333	2888612
Year 2	3974650	-2568156	7440984	0.6944	2760174
Year 3	3956755	1388599	11397739	0.5787	2289789
Year 4	3239981	4628580	14637720	0.4823	1562491
TOTAL					9501065

The Net NPV after 4 years is -508075

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9501065 - 10009140 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Sasc Incidents to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Sasc Incidents has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Sasc Incidents can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Sasc Incidents, then the stock price of the Sasc Incidents should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Sasc Incidents should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Getting Squeezed

References & Further Readings

Kenneth Winston (2018), "Getting Squeezed Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.