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Cisco Switches in China: The Year of the Manager Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Cisco Switches in China: The Year of the Manager case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Cisco Switches in China: The Year of the Manager case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Lynn Isabella, Gerry Yemen. The Cisco Switches in China: The Year of the Manager (referred as “Raznjevic Engineer” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Motivating people, Negotiations, Organizational culture, Talent management, Technology.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Cisco Switches in China: The Year of the Manager Case Study


Jan Gronski, managing director of the Cisco China Research and Development Center (CRDC), and Ivo Raznjevic, engineering director, set out to establish a new R&D facility in Shanghai, China. This case focuses on the building of a culture through human-resource practices while describing such steps as securing an appropriate building, assembling a workforce, seeking appropriate projects, developing managers, building teams, evaluating performance, protecting intellectual property, and managing growth. The case presents specific challenges that arise regarding talent management: How does a manager overcome dramatic cultural differences within a diverse workgroup? Should a local female employee be promoted from a test engineer to a development manager? How should Raznjevic help his newest manager through his first encounter with Cisco's ranking system? What action, if any, should Raznjevic take regarding a senior engineer who sent out a controversial e-mail? This material highlights organizational culture and offers an opportunity for students to learn to recognize and manage difference. The case could be taught near the end of a term to serve as a review of organizational behavior at a graduate level or in an executive education program focusing on issues of team-building, growing managers from within, and related talent-management issues in a global context.


Case Authors : Lynn Isabella, Gerry Yemen

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Motivating people, Negotiations, Organizational culture, Talent management, Technology




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Cisco Switches in China: The Year of the Manager Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10029620) -10029620 - -
Year 1 3453265 -6576355 3453265 0.9434 3257797
Year 2 3954651 -2621704 7407916 0.89 3519625
Year 3 3938900 1317196 11346816 0.8396 3307176
Year 4 3232711 4549907 14579527 0.7921 2560610
TOTAL 14579527 12645209




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2615589

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Raznjevic Engineer shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Raznjevic Engineer have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Cisco Switches in China: The Year of the Manager

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Raznjevic Engineer often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Raznjevic Engineer needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10029620) -10029620 - -
Year 1 3453265 -6576355 3453265 0.8696 3002839
Year 2 3954651 -2621704 7407916 0.7561 2990284
Year 3 3938900 1317196 11346816 0.6575 2589891
Year 4 3232711 4549907 14579527 0.5718 1848313
TOTAL 10431327


The Net NPV after 4 years is 401707

(10431327 - 10029620 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10029620) -10029620 - -
Year 1 3453265 -6576355 3453265 0.8333 2877721
Year 2 3954651 -2621704 7407916 0.6944 2746285
Year 3 3938900 1317196 11346816 0.5787 2279456
Year 4 3232711 4549907 14579527 0.4823 1558985
TOTAL 9462447


The Net NPV after 4 years is -567173

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9462447 - 10029620 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Raznjevic Engineer to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Raznjevic Engineer has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Raznjevic Engineer can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Raznjevic Engineer, then the stock price of the Raznjevic Engineer should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Raznjevic Engineer should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Cisco Switches in China: The Year of the Manager

References & Further Readings

Lynn Isabella, Gerry Yemen (2018), "Cisco Switches in China: The Year of the Manager Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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