What Business Is Zara In? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for What Business Is Zara In? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. What Business Is Zara In? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Daniel Doiron. The What Business Is Zara In? (referred as “Zara Overspends” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Growth strategy, Risk management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of What Business Is Zara In? Case Study

Zara, a successful fast fashion manufacturer and retailer, noted for its uncommon business process, needs to consider the future of the company and its popular flagship brand. The company produces clothes in the high cost labour market in Europe, spends very little on advertising, ostensibly overspends on positioning high-end stores in chic retail districts, and carries substantially less inventory and charges 15 per cent less than its competitors. Though investors initially viewed this process as a formula for disaster, the company had proven them wrong by establishing itself as a leader in the industry with its hard-to-replicate strategy for success. However, the disruptive business model innovator is now faced with new competitors who are trying to beat the company at its own game by successfully copying key components of its fast fashion approach. The company needs to find a way to continue to differentiate its brand in the evolving industry, while capturing more than its share of the tremendous market growth anticipated in the future. Daniel Doiron is affiliated with University of New Brunswick Saint John.

Case Authors : Daniel Doiron

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Growth strategy, Risk management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for What Business Is Zara In? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028272)	-10028272	-	-
Year 1	3470268	-6558004	3470268	0.9434	3273838
Year 2	3977677	-2580327	7447945	0.89	3540118
Year 3	3942731	1362404	11390676	0.8396	3310393
Year 4	3223880	4586284	14614556	0.7921	2553615
TOTAL			14614556		12677964

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2649692

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Zara Overspends have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Zara Overspends shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of What Business Is Zara In?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Zara Overspends often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Zara Overspends needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028272)	-10028272	-	-
Year 1	3470268	-6558004	3470268	0.8696	3017624
Year 2	3977677	-2580327	7447945	0.7561	3007695
Year 3	3942731	1362404	11390676	0.6575	2592410
Year 4	3223880	4586284	14614556	0.5718	1843264
TOTAL					10460993

The Net NPV after 4 years is 432721

(10460993 - 10028272 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028272)	-10028272	-	-
Year 1	3470268	-6558004	3470268	0.8333	2891890
Year 2	3977677	-2580327	7447945	0.6944	2762276
Year 3	3942731	1362404	11390676	0.5787	2281673
Year 4	3223880	4586284	14614556	0.4823	1554726
TOTAL					9490565

The Net NPV after 4 years is -537707

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9490565 - 10028272 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Zara Overspends to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Zara Overspends has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Zara Overspends can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Zara Overspends, then the stock price of the Zara Overspends should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Zara Overspends should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of What Business Is Zara In?

References & Further Readings

Daniel Doiron (2018), "What Business Is Zara In? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.