American Airlines (C): Committing to Leadership Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for American Airlines (C): Committing to Leadership case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. American Airlines (C): Committing to Leadership case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Gary W. Loveman. The American Airlines (C): Committing to Leadership (referred as “Ctl Cultural” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Customers, Developing employees, Leadership, Motivating people, Organizational culture.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of American Airlines (C): Committing to Leadership Case Study

In an effort to grow and contain costs, the airline initiates a series of cultural change programs designed to increase employee participation and decision-making, and accordingly decrease the proportion of supervisors. CTL is the most recent, and by far the most expensive and pervasive of these programs. The case poses the questions of how to evaluate, or quantify the gains from CTL, and how to further the cultural change effort.

Case Authors : Gary W. Loveman

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Customers, Developing employees, Leadership, Motivating people, Organizational culture

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for American Airlines (C): Committing to Leadership Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020774)	-10020774	-	-
Year 1	3453037	-6567737	3453037	0.9434	3257582
Year 2	3970478	-2597259	7423515	0.89	3533711
Year 3	3954206	1356947	11377721	0.8396	3320028
Year 4	3238013	4594960	14615734	0.7921	2564810
TOTAL			14615734		12676131

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2655357

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ctl Cultural shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ctl Cultural have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of American Airlines (C): Committing to Leadership

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ctl Cultural often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ctl Cultural needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020774)	-10020774	-	-
Year 1	3453037	-6567737	3453037	0.8696	3002641
Year 2	3970478	-2597259	7423515	0.7561	3002252
Year 3	3954206	1356947	11377721	0.6575	2599955
Year 4	3238013	4594960	14615734	0.5718	1851344
TOTAL					10456192

The Net NPV after 4 years is 435418

(10456192 - 10020774 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020774)	-10020774	-	-
Year 1	3453037	-6567737	3453037	0.8333	2877531
Year 2	3970478	-2597259	7423515	0.6944	2757276
Year 3	3954206	1356947	11377721	0.5787	2288314
Year 4	3238013	4594960	14615734	0.4823	1561542
TOTAL					9484663

The Net NPV after 4 years is -536111

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9484663 - 10020774 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ctl Cultural to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ctl Cultural has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ctl Cultural can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ctl Cultural, then the stock price of the Ctl Cultural should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ctl Cultural should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of American Airlines (C): Committing to Leadership

References & Further Readings

Gary W. Loveman (2018), "American Airlines (C): Committing to Leadership Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.