NorPetrol Venezuela's Social Investment, Spanish Version Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for NorPetrol Venezuela's Social Investment, Spanish Version case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. NorPetrol Venezuela's Social Investment, Spanish Version case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Josefina F. Bruni-Celli, Rosa Amelia Gonzalez. The NorPetrol Venezuela's Social Investment, Spanish Version (referred as “Fishermen Francisca” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Ethics, Government, Social enterprise, Social responsibility.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of NorPetrol Venezuela's Social Investment, Spanish Version Case Study

In 1996, NorPetrol arrived in Venezuela, where it started upstream oil operations. The company engaged in corporate social responsibility initiatives to support its operations, choosing its programs after consulting with local stakeholders. Upon arriving in the Paria Gulf area, Francisca Rios, head of the company's Social Investment and Community Relations Coordinating Unit, met with politicians, community leaders, public officials, and grassroots organizations' representatives to learn about their expectations and issues, and to communicate the company's investment plans and projects with a potential impact on their communities. A stakeholder identified by the company was Asopescar, an association of traditional fishermen. Tensions between fishermen and oil companies were commonplace. The former blamed NorPetrol for the degradation of a mangrove swamp and a significant decrease in production during the fishing season. Francisca Rios did not want to build a relationship with the fishermen based on donations and assistance. Intending empower them, she decided to channel a portion of her social investment budget to turn Asopescar fishermen into entrepreneurs. In 2006, Francisca Rios considered that Asopescar had made great progress as a productive, self-sustaining company. However, a number of problems had arisen in the organization, forcing her to rethink upcoming investments of NorPetrol in the association. Problems included rising unpaid debts of Asopecar members with their own organization, member drop-out, administrative chaos and informality in money handling, and high operating costs.The case raises the challenges facing an oil company to achieve a social license to operate, as well as its attempts to secure sustainable community development processes in its areas of influence. It takes place in April 2006, at which time Francisca Rios, wondered what to do with her initiative to support modernization of the productive model of a group of small-scale fishermen. IESA's case collection

Case Authors : Josefina F. Bruni-Celli, Rosa Amelia Gonzalez

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Ethics, Government, Social enterprise, Social responsibility

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for NorPetrol Venezuela's Social Investment, Spanish Version Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007585)	-10007585	-	-
Year 1	3448166	-6559419	3448166	0.9434	3252987
Year 2	3963406	-2596013	7411572	0.89	3527417
Year 3	3958805	1362792	11370377	0.8396	3323889
Year 4	3229976	4592768	14600353	0.7921	2558444
TOTAL			14600353		12662737

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2655152

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Fishermen Francisca have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Fishermen Francisca shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of NorPetrol Venezuela's Social Investment, Spanish Version

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Fishermen Francisca often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Fishermen Francisca needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007585)	-10007585	-	-
Year 1	3448166	-6559419	3448166	0.8696	2998405
Year 2	3963406	-2596013	7411572	0.7561	2996904
Year 3	3958805	1362792	11370377	0.6575	2602979
Year 4	3229976	4592768	14600353	0.5718	1846749
TOTAL					10445037

The Net NPV after 4 years is 437452

(10445037 - 10007585 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10007585)	-10007585	-	-
Year 1	3448166	-6559419	3448166	0.8333	2873472
Year 2	3963406	-2596013	7411572	0.6944	2752365
Year 3	3958805	1362792	11370377	0.5787	2290975
Year 4	3229976	4592768	14600353	0.4823	1557666
TOTAL					9474478

The Net NPV after 4 years is -533107

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9474478 - 10007585 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Fishermen Francisca to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Fishermen Francisca has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Fishermen Francisca can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Fishermen Francisca, then the stock price of the Fishermen Francisca should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Fishermen Francisca should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of NorPetrol Venezuela's Social Investment, Spanish Version

References & Further Readings

Josefina F. Bruni-Celli, Rosa Amelia Gonzalez (2018), "NorPetrol Venezuela's Social Investment, Spanish Version Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.