Starbucks Corporation: Building a Sustainable Supply Chain Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Starbucks Corporation: Building a Sustainable Supply Chain case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Starbucks Corporation: Building a Sustainable Supply Chain case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Hau Lee, Stacy Duda, Lashawn James, Zeryn MacKwani. The Starbucks Corporation: Building a Sustainable Supply Chain (referred as “Coffee Starbucks” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Growth strategy, Social responsibility, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Starbucks Corporation: Building a Sustainable Supply Chain Case Study

Starbucks Corporation was the world's largest specialty coffee retailer, with 2005 annual revenue of $6.4 billion. Despite gigantic growth in specialty coffee in the 1990s, a worldwide oversupply of lower-grade coffee had depressed market prices in the previous few years, making it difficult for coffee farmers to earn enough revenue to cover the cost of production. By the end of 2005, Starbucks was at a challenging point in its history. It boasted more than 10,000 stores--up from 676 a decade before--and roasted 2.3% of the world's coffee. Each day it opened an average of four stores and hired 200 employees. To support such a high growth rate, the company's future success depended on a secure supply of high-quality coffee beans to meet increased demand--Starbucks had to ensure a sustainable supply of this key commodity. The company decided to partner with Conservation International, an environmental nonprofit organization, to develop C.A.F.E. Practices (Coffee and Farmer Equity Practices). The goal was to contribute to the livelihood of coffee farmers and to ensure high-quality coffee for the long term. If Starbucks were able to overcome the issues it faced with a widespread implementation of C.A.F.E., the initiative could go a long way towards improving the sustainability of its coffee supply chain while at the same time improving Starbucks' image as a socially responsible corporation.

Case Authors : Hau Lee, Stacy Duda, Lashawn James, Zeryn MacKwani

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Growth strategy, Social responsibility, Supply chain

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Starbucks Corporation: Building a Sustainable Supply Chain Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025639)	-10025639	-	-
Year 1	3452131	-6573508	3452131	0.9434	3256727
Year 2	3953608	-2619900	7405739	0.89	3518697
Year 3	3951142	1331242	11356881	0.8396	3317455
Year 4	3244419	4575661	14601300	0.7921	2569884
TOTAL			14601300		12662763

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2637124

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Coffee Starbucks shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Coffee Starbucks have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Starbucks Corporation: Building a Sustainable Supply Chain

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Coffee Starbucks often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Coffee Starbucks needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025639)	-10025639	-	-
Year 1	3452131	-6573508	3452131	0.8696	3001853
Year 2	3953608	-2619900	7405739	0.7561	2989496
Year 3	3951142	1331242	11356881	0.6575	2597940
Year 4	3244419	4575661	14601300	0.5718	1855007
TOTAL					10444296

The Net NPV after 4 years is 418657

(10444296 - 10025639 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025639)	-10025639	-	-
Year 1	3452131	-6573508	3452131	0.8333	2876776
Year 2	3953608	-2619900	7405739	0.6944	2745561
Year 3	3951142	1331242	11356881	0.5787	2286541
Year 4	3244419	4575661	14601300	0.4823	1564631
TOTAL					9473509

The Net NPV after 4 years is -552130

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9473509 - 10025639 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Coffee Starbucks to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Coffee Starbucks has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Coffee Starbucks can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Coffee Starbucks, then the stock price of the Coffee Starbucks should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Coffee Starbucks should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Starbucks Corporation: Building a Sustainable Supply Chain

References & Further Readings

Hau Lee, Stacy Duda, Lashawn James, Zeryn MacKwani (2018), "Starbucks Corporation: Building a Sustainable Supply Chain Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.