Hotel Wuxi International: Expansion into China Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Hotel Wuxi International: Expansion into China case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Hotel Wuxi International: Expansion into China case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Choon Chiang Leong. The Hotel Wuxi International: Expansion into China (referred as “Spipl Wuxi” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial analysis, International business, Market research, Operations management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Hotel Wuxi International: Expansion into China Case Study

In December 2006, Sinchong Property Investment Pte Ltd (SPIPL), a Singapore-based property investment firm, signed a letter of intent to take over a partially completed hotel project from the Wuxi City Authority for consideration of a sum of RMB45 million. The original property development called for a 22-storey three-star hotel building with 220 rooms and a four-storey staff building. The concrete structure had already been built, but due to financial difficulties, the Chinese owner had to relinquish the project. Within 60 days prior to the signing of the final agreement to take over the project, SPIPL was keen to ensure that the project was feasible and that the new hotel, its first such project in China, would succeed. During this period, Liang Chee-Sian, the Chief Executive Officer of SPIPL must assess the business challenges of developing and operating the new Hotel Wuxi International.

Case Authors : Choon Chiang Leong

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Financial analysis, International business, Market research, Operations management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Hotel Wuxi International: Expansion into China Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10008421)	-10008421	-	-
Year 1	3451446	-6556975	3451446	0.9434	3256081
Year 2	3968554	-2588421	7420000	0.89	3531999
Year 3	3951665	1363244	11371665	0.8396	3317894
Year 4	3229521	4592765	14601186	0.7921	2558083
TOTAL			14601186		12664057

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2655636

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Spipl Wuxi shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Spipl Wuxi have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Hotel Wuxi International: Expansion into China

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Spipl Wuxi often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Spipl Wuxi needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10008421)	-10008421	-	-
Year 1	3451446	-6556975	3451446	0.8696	3001257
Year 2	3968554	-2588421	7420000	0.7561	3000797
Year 3	3951665	1363244	11371665	0.6575	2598284
Year 4	3229521	4592765	14601186	0.5718	1846489
TOTAL					10446827

The Net NPV after 4 years is 438406

(10446827 - 10008421 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10008421)	-10008421	-	-
Year 1	3451446	-6556975	3451446	0.8333	2876205
Year 2	3968554	-2588421	7420000	0.6944	2755940
Year 3	3951665	1363244	11371665	0.5787	2286843
Year 4	3229521	4592765	14601186	0.4823	1557446
TOTAL					9476435

The Net NPV after 4 years is -531986

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9476435 - 10008421 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Spipl Wuxi to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Spipl Wuxi has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Spipl Wuxi can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Spipl Wuxi, then the stock price of the Spipl Wuxi should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Spipl Wuxi should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Hotel Wuxi International: Expansion into China

References & Further Readings

Choon Chiang Leong (2018), "Hotel Wuxi International: Expansion into China Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.