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Transkin Income Fund: Leading Entrepreneurial Teams Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Transkin Income Fund: Leading Entrepreneurial Teams case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Transkin Income Fund: Leading Entrepreneurial Teams case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Gerard Seijts, Jana Seijts, Ken Mark. The Transkin Income Fund: Leading Entrepreneurial Teams (referred as “Transkin Rollback” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Motivating people, Recession.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Transkin Income Fund: Leading Entrepreneurial Teams Case Study


Transkin Income Fund provided freight transportation services in Canada and the United States. In mid February 2009, in response to a sharp fall in demand for transportation services due to the economic crisis, the chief operation officer had suggested that each of his six freight divisions and six support divisions and the corporate division should all implement a salary rollback. The chief operating officer (COO) believed that a strong message needed to be sent to customers, shareholders, banks, owner-operators, drivers and suppliers that Transkin was being proactive by taking action internally to ride out the crisis. Two of the 13 general managers resented the COO's plan. The two dissenters were from Transkin's two most profitable divisions; they were also the most senior executives. Both had their own reasons to resist the COO's idea. The COO wondered how he should respond to both dissenters - he wanted the support of every general manager for the salary rollback.


Case Authors : Gerard Seijts, Jana Seijts, Ken Mark

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Motivating people, Recession




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Transkin Income Fund: Leading Entrepreneurial Teams Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10021438) -10021438 - -
Year 1 3444308 -6577130 3444308 0.9434 3249347
Year 2 3971783 -2605347 7416091 0.89 3534873
Year 3 3941381 1336034 11357472 0.8396 3309259
Year 4 3250077 4586111 14607549 0.7921 2574365
TOTAL 14607549 12667845




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2646407

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Transkin Rollback shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Transkin Rollback have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Transkin Income Fund: Leading Entrepreneurial Teams

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Transkin Rollback often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Transkin Rollback needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10021438) -10021438 - -
Year 1 3444308 -6577130 3444308 0.8696 2995050
Year 2 3971783 -2605347 7416091 0.7561 3003239
Year 3 3941381 1336034 11357472 0.6575 2591522
Year 4 3250077 4586111 14607549 0.5718 1858242
TOTAL 10448053


The Net NPV after 4 years is 426615

(10448053 - 10021438 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10021438) -10021438 - -
Year 1 3444308 -6577130 3444308 0.8333 2870257
Year 2 3971783 -2605347 7416091 0.6944 2758183
Year 3 3941381 1336034 11357472 0.5787 2280892
Year 4 3250077 4586111 14607549 0.4823 1567360
TOTAL 9476691


The Net NPV after 4 years is -544747

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9476691 - 10021438 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Transkin Rollback to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Transkin Rollback has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Transkin Rollback can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Transkin Rollback, then the stock price of the Transkin Rollback should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Transkin Rollback should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Transkin Income Fund: Leading Entrepreneurial Teams

References & Further Readings

Gerard Seijts, Jana Seijts, Ken Mark (2018), "Transkin Income Fund: Leading Entrepreneurial Teams Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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