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Simpson Seeds: Growing the Next Generation Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Simpson Seeds: Growing the Next Generation case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Simpson Seeds: Growing the Next Generation case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Vanessa M. Strike, David Bentall, Christine Lowe. The Simpson Seeds: Growing the Next Generation (referred as “Simpson Ssi” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Organizational Development. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Succession planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Simpson Seeds: Growing the Next Generation Case Study


Greg Simpson was the chief executive officer of Simpson Seeds Inc. (SSI). He and his two brothers, second-generation owners of a family farm, had started the seed company. From humble beginnings in Moose Jaw, SSI had grown to be the largest privately owned lentil exporter and seed retailer in Saskatchewan, Canada, distributing pulses to nearly 80 countries worldwide. Simpson and his brothers had recently added a new red lentil-splitting plant to the family business; however, the new plant required leadership. The brothers were also considering how to continue the family legacy. Transitioning management and leadership of SSI would not be easy. Five of nine cousins from the third generation worked at SSI. Would the new plant be the ideal launching pad for the third generation, allowing them to learn how to lead and manage a segment of the family business? Simpson and his brothers were scheduled to meet on Monday, when Simpson was to deliver a proposal for succession planning. Vanessa M. Strike is affiliated with University of British Columbia.


Case Authors : Vanessa M. Strike, David Bentall, Christine Lowe

Topic : Organizational Development

Related Areas : Succession planning




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Simpson Seeds: Growing the Next Generation Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015250) -10015250 - -
Year 1 3453259 -6561991 3453259 0.9434 3257792
Year 2 3959774 -2602217 7413033 0.89 3524185
Year 3 3953236 1351019 11366269 0.8396 3319213
Year 4 3228467 4579486 14594736 0.7921 2557248
TOTAL 14594736 12658438




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2643188

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Simpson Ssi shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Simpson Ssi have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Simpson Seeds: Growing the Next Generation

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Organizational Development Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Simpson Ssi often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Simpson Ssi needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015250) -10015250 - -
Year 1 3453259 -6561991 3453259 0.8696 3002834
Year 2 3959774 -2602217 7413033 0.7561 2994158
Year 3 3953236 1351019 11366269 0.6575 2599317
Year 4 3228467 4579486 14594736 0.5718 1845886
TOTAL 10442195


The Net NPV after 4 years is 426945

(10442195 - 10015250 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015250) -10015250 - -
Year 1 3453259 -6561991 3453259 0.8333 2877716
Year 2 3959774 -2602217 7413033 0.6944 2749843
Year 3 3953236 1351019 11366269 0.5787 2287752
Year 4 3228467 4579486 14594736 0.4823 1556938
TOTAL 9472249


The Net NPV after 4 years is -543001

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9472249 - 10015250 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Simpson Ssi to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Simpson Ssi has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Simpson Ssi can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Simpson Ssi, then the stock price of the Simpson Ssi should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Simpson Ssi should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Simpson Seeds: Growing the Next Generation

References & Further Readings

Vanessa M. Strike, David Bentall, Christine Lowe (2018), "Simpson Seeds: Growing the Next Generation Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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