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Merck: Pricing Gardasil Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Merck: Pricing Gardasil case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Merck: Pricing Gardasil case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Tim Calkins, Megha Vora. The Merck: Pricing Gardasil (referred as “Gardasil Watkins” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Pricing.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Merck: Pricing Gardasil Case Study


Allison Watkins, senior director of Merck's Vaccines Division, needed to decide on the pricing of Gardasil, Merck's newest vaccine and one of the company's most important product launches of the year. The outside consulting firm she had hired to recommend a price for Gardasil had suggested a price of $120 per dose (or $360 per person, as each person required three doses over six months to achieve adequate immunity). The Gardasil marketing team disagreed about this recommended price; some thought it was clearly too high, whereas others said it was too low. The latter group argued that Merck would be missing a major opportunity by setting the price at such a low level. Watkins now needed to decide whether to follow the consulting firm's recommendation or to set a different price.


Case Authors : Tim Calkins, Megha Vora

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Pricing




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Merck: Pricing Gardasil Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028175) -10028175 - -
Year 1 3454680 -6573495 3454680 0.9434 3259132
Year 2 3981384 -2592111 7436064 0.89 3543418
Year 3 3973457 1381346 11409521 0.8396 3336191
Year 4 3225622 4606968 14635143 0.7921 2554995
TOTAL 14635143 12693736




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2665561

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Gardasil Watkins shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Gardasil Watkins have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Merck: Pricing Gardasil

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Gardasil Watkins often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Gardasil Watkins needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028175) -10028175 - -
Year 1 3454680 -6573495 3454680 0.8696 3004070
Year 2 3981384 -2592111 7436064 0.7561 3010498
Year 3 3973457 1381346 11409521 0.6575 2612612
Year 4 3225622 4606968 14635143 0.5718 1844260
TOTAL 10471440


The Net NPV after 4 years is 443265

(10471440 - 10028175 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028175) -10028175 - -
Year 1 3454680 -6573495 3454680 0.8333 2878900
Year 2 3981384 -2592111 7436064 0.6944 2764850
Year 3 3973457 1381346 11409521 0.5787 2299454
Year 4 3225622 4606968 14635143 0.4823 1555566
TOTAL 9498770


The Net NPV after 4 years is -529405

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9498770 - 10028175 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Gardasil Watkins to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Gardasil Watkins has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Gardasil Watkins can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Gardasil Watkins, then the stock price of the Gardasil Watkins should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Gardasil Watkins should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Merck: Pricing Gardasil

References & Further Readings

Tim Calkins, Megha Vora (2018), "Merck: Pricing Gardasil Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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