Developing and Marketing a Blockbuster Drug: Lessons from Eli Lilly's Experience with Prozac Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Developing and Marketing a Blockbuster Drug: Lessons from Eli Lilly's Experience with Prozac case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Developing and Marketing a Blockbuster Drug: Lessons from Eli Lilly's Experience with Prozac case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Margaret L. Eaton, Mark Xu. The Developing and Marketing a Blockbuster Drug: Lessons from Eli Lilly's Experience with Prozac (referred as “Prozac Ssris” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Marketing, Product development.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Developing and Marketing a Blockbuster Drug: Lessons from Eli Lilly's Experience with Prozac Case Study

In 1987, Eli Lilly began to market Prozac, the first available drug in a new class of psychotropic drugs called selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs). Prozac, and other SSRIs that followed it, revolutionized the treatment of depression and changed the philosophy and practice of psychiatry. It allowed depression to be treated by nonpsychiatrist physicians, substantially increased the number of depressed patients who had access to treatment, and lowered the cost of treating depression and other mental illnesses. Prozac quickly became the biggest selling drug in the history of the pharmaceutical industry. Explores the history of Prozac and the factors that combined to make it the best-selling drug of all time. Provides a brief history of depression and the theories that led some scientists to pursue SSRIs. Covers Lilly's uncertain development of Prozac, the thoughtful marketing that went into the launch, and the company's post-launch marketing strategies as the drug became widely used. Emphasizes the management difficulties, including product lawsuits and patent expirations, generated by blockbuster drugs.

Case Authors : Margaret L. Eaton, Mark Xu

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Marketing, Product development

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Developing and Marketing a Blockbuster Drug: Lessons from Eli Lilly's Experience with Prozac Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021344)	-10021344	-	-
Year 1	3458634	-6562710	3458634	0.9434	3262862
Year 2	3982121	-2580589	7440755	0.89	3544074
Year 3	3970935	1390346	11411690	0.8396	3334074
Year 4	3224880	4615226	14636570	0.7921	2554407
TOTAL			14636570		12695416

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2674072

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Prozac Ssris have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Prozac Ssris shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Developing and Marketing a Blockbuster Drug: Lessons from Eli Lilly's Experience with Prozac

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Prozac Ssris often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Prozac Ssris needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021344)	-10021344	-	-
Year 1	3458634	-6562710	3458634	0.8696	3007508
Year 2	3982121	-2580589	7440755	0.7561	3011056
Year 3	3970935	1390346	11411690	0.6575	2610954
Year 4	3224880	4615226	14636570	0.5718	1843836
TOTAL					10473353

The Net NPV after 4 years is 452009

(10473353 - 10021344 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021344)	-10021344	-	-
Year 1	3458634	-6562710	3458634	0.8333	2882195
Year 2	3982121	-2580589	7440755	0.6944	2765362
Year 3	3970935	1390346	11411690	0.5787	2297995
Year 4	3224880	4615226	14636570	0.4823	1555208
TOTAL					9500760

The Net NPV after 4 years is -520584

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9500760 - 10021344 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Prozac Ssris to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Prozac Ssris has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Prozac Ssris can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Prozac Ssris, then the stock price of the Prozac Ssris should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Prozac Ssris should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Developing and Marketing a Blockbuster Drug: Lessons from Eli Lilly's Experience with Prozac

References & Further Readings

Margaret L. Eaton, Mark Xu (2018), "Developing and Marketing a Blockbuster Drug: Lessons from Eli Lilly's Experience with Prozac Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.