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Avaya (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Avaya (A) case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Avaya (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by David B. Godes. The Avaya (A) (referred as “Funnel Avaya” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Performance measurement, Sales.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Avaya (A) Case Study


To maximize their effectiveness, color cases should be printed in color.Avaya's top management wants to improve demand generation. This requires an improvement in the relationship between Sales and Marketing. This case series (Avaya (A)-(D)) walks the student through each phase of this process. The (A) case begins with background on the firm, and asks the student to come up with a strategy to improve the way in which Sales and Marketing work together. In the (B) case, we see their strategy in the form of a "unified funnel" and a demand generation framework. The unified funnel communicates the idea that not only should the marketing funnel and the sales funnel be linked "vertically"--in the sense that Marketing's leads should flow seamlessly into Sales' funnel--but they should also be integrated horizontally. This latter point refers to the idea that Sales and Marketing should each play a role in each phase of the process from email marketing solutions right through to the close. That is, they argue that the two functions are best integrated by encouraging them to work simultaneously, not just sequentially. The demand generation framework, on the other hand, makes explicit what it means for them to work together. For example, they stipulate that Marketing should be included on the weekly sales conference call. The students are then asked to think about how they would implement these ideas. In the (C) case, the implementation plan for a specific market--Brazil--is described. In particular, we are given data that were used in the roll-out process that showed the market's managers how they compared with other markets on a number of dimensions. Finally, the (D) case shows some early data suggesting that this new method of working together has had a significant impact.


Case Authors : David B. Godes

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Performance measurement, Sales




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Avaya (A) Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10017978) -10017978 - -
Year 1 3465454 -6552524 3465454 0.9434 3269296
Year 2 3957062 -2595462 7422516 0.89 3521771
Year 3 3939135 1343673 11361651 0.8396 3307374
Year 4 3222002 4565675 14583653 0.7921 2552127
TOTAL 14583653 12650568




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2632590

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Funnel Avaya have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Funnel Avaya shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Avaya (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Funnel Avaya often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Funnel Avaya needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10017978) -10017978 - -
Year 1 3465454 -6552524 3465454 0.8696 3013438
Year 2 3957062 -2595462 7422516 0.7561 2992107
Year 3 3939135 1343673 11361651 0.6575 2590045
Year 4 3222002 4565675 14583653 0.5718 1842190
TOTAL 10437781


The Net NPV after 4 years is 419803

(10437781 - 10017978 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10017978) -10017978 - -
Year 1 3465454 -6552524 3465454 0.8333 2887878
Year 2 3957062 -2595462 7422516 0.6944 2747960
Year 3 3939135 1343673 11361651 0.5787 2279592
Year 4 3222002 4565675 14583653 0.4823 1553820
TOTAL 9469250


The Net NPV after 4 years is -548728

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9469250 - 10017978 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Funnel Avaya to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Funnel Avaya has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Funnel Avaya can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Funnel Avaya, then the stock price of the Funnel Avaya should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Funnel Avaya should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Avaya (A)

References & Further Readings

David B. Godes (2018), "Avaya (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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