Pop Shoppe (B) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Pop Shoppe (B) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Pop Shoppe (B) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Matthew Thomson, Kendra Hart. The Pop Shoppe (B) (referred as “Shoppe Pop” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

---

Case Description of Pop Shoppe (B) Case Study

By 2010, the entrepreneur's revived Pop Shoppe brand was holding second place in the premium carbonated soft drink market. This level of market penetration was a bit unexpected, and the entrepreneur began contemplating his next move. The entrepreneur wanted to grow the brand larger, in hopes of selling out and moving on to other business ventures that had captured his interest. He had watched as other small drink brands had been bought up by larger firms, and thought that the Pop Shoppe should be attractive to another company looking to expand its portfolio. Concerned that he might have taken the brand as far as it could go in its home market, the entrepreneur considered other avenues for growth. With a solid footing in the Canadian market, he began to wonder if the Pop Shoppe could find a similar level of success in the United States. His drive to grow the brand in hopes of acquisition made the larger U.S. market seem like an appealing option, however, it had many potential risks as well. Although the Pop Shoppe had made successful re-entry into the Canadian market, the U.S. market was far more competitive. He wanted to grow the company large enough to attract a potential buyer and move on, but he did not want to jeopardize his Canadian success by investing too much into a U.S. gamble.

Case Authors : Matthew Thomson, Kendra Hart

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas :

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Pop Shoppe (B) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001548)	-10001548	-	-
Year 1	3443233	-6558315	3443233	0.9434	3248333
Year 2	3970219	-2588096	7413452	0.89	3533481
Year 3	3967190	1379094	11380642	0.8396	3330929
Year 4	3222095	4601189	14602737	0.7921	2552201
TOTAL			14602737		12664944

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2663396

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

---

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Shoppe Pop shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Shoppe Pop have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

---

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Pop Shoppe (B)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Shoppe Pop often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Shoppe Pop needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001548)	-10001548	-	-
Year 1	3443233	-6558315	3443233	0.8696	2994116
Year 2	3970219	-2588096	7413452	0.7561	3002056
Year 3	3967190	1379094	11380642	0.6575	2608492
Year 4	3222095	4601189	14602737	0.5718	1842243
TOTAL					10446907

The Net NPV after 4 years is 445359

(10446907 - 10001548 )

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001548)	-10001548	-	-
Year 1	3443233	-6558315	3443233	0.8333	2869361
Year 2	3970219	-2588096	7413452	0.6944	2757097
Year 3	3967190	1379094	11380642	0.5787	2295828
Year 4	3222095	4601189	14602737	0.4823	1553865
TOTAL					9476150

The Net NPV after 4 years is -525398

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9476150 - 10001548 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Shoppe Pop to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Shoppe Pop has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Shoppe Pop can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Shoppe Pop, then the stock price of the Shoppe Pop should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Shoppe Pop should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

---

Negotiation Strategy of Pop Shoppe (B)

References & Further Readings

Matthew Thomson, Kendra Hart (2018), "Pop Shoppe (B) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.