COFCO Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for COFCO case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. COFCO case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by David E. Bell, Natalie Kindred. The COFCO (referred as “Cofco Food” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Competition, Corporate governance, Financial markets, Globalization, Mergers & acquisitions, Policy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of COFCO Case Study

In 2015, COFCO, China's state-owned agribusiness giant, was working to protect China's food security (a key national security priority) by extending its control of the global food system through overseas acquisitions. At the same time, COFCO sought to grow its market share in China's fiercely competitive branded foods market. To help achieve these goals, COFCO Chairman Frank Ning was driving internal reforms to make COFCO's management more competitive, innovative, and globally experienced. This case allows for a discussion of the Chinese marketplace and the evolving approach to business structures taken by the Chinese government. COFCO is the leading food company in China, and we can see through the case the hurdles faced in transitioning a company from pursuing mostly social objectives to mostly profit making. Finally, the case is a useful vehicle for discussing the question of whether and how China can feed itself. Efficient and reliable sourcing of food from abroad is evidently an increasing, and urgent, priority.

Case Authors : David E. Bell, Natalie Kindred

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Competition, Corporate governance, Financial markets, Globalization, Mergers & acquisitions, Policy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for COFCO Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001593)	-10001593	-	-
Year 1	3461724	-6539869	3461724	0.9434	3265777
Year 2	3966506	-2573363	7428230	0.89	3530176
Year 3	3956401	1383038	11384631	0.8396	3321871
Year 4	3236113	4619151	14620744	0.7921	2563305
TOTAL			14620744		12681129

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2679536

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Cofco Food shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Cofco Food have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of COFCO

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Cofco Food often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Cofco Food needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001593)	-10001593	-	-
Year 1	3461724	-6539869	3461724	0.8696	3010195
Year 2	3966506	-2573363	7428230	0.7561	2999248
Year 3	3956401	1383038	11384631	0.6575	2601398
Year 4	3236113	4619151	14620744	0.5718	1850258
TOTAL					10461099

The Net NPV after 4 years is 459506

(10461099 - 10001593 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001593)	-10001593	-	-
Year 1	3461724	-6539869	3461724	0.8333	2884770
Year 2	3966506	-2573363	7428230	0.6944	2754518
Year 3	3956401	1383038	11384631	0.5787	2289584
Year 4	3236113	4619151	14620744	0.4823	1560625
TOTAL					9489497

The Net NPV after 4 years is -512096

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9489497 - 10001593 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Cofco Food to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Cofco Food has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Cofco Food can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Cofco Food, then the stock price of the Cofco Food should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Cofco Food should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of COFCO

References & Further Readings

David E. Bell, Natalie Kindred (2018), "COFCO Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.