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Mobile Marketing Strategy Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Mobile Marketing Strategy case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Mobile Marketing Strategy case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mario Capizzani, Neeti Bhargava, Xavier Canigueral, Shruti Chaudhry. The Mobile Marketing Strategy (referred as “Mobile Users” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Mobile Marketing Strategy Case Study


In the modern-day marketing mix, companies must choose from an increasing array of channels to sell their products or services and connect with their users. Whereas television, print and online advertising have traditionally dominated this promotion arena, mobile now accounts for more than half of all search traffic in at least 10 countries and an increasing proportion of advertising in many markets. Improvements in technology have also made it easier for companies to develop innovative business models that rely on mobile interfaces and heighten users' dependency on this tool. As users become increasingly reliant on their mobile devices, it is indispensable for every company to consider launching its own mobile strategy. This note gives managers guidance on formulating a mobile strategy as well as on identifying best practice for designing mobile websites and mobile apps.


Case Authors : Mario Capizzani, Neeti Bhargava, Xavier Canigueral, Shruti Chaudhry

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas :




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Mobile Marketing Strategy Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10005385) -10005385 - -
Year 1 3464085 -6541300 3464085 0.9434 3268005
Year 2 3953510 -2587790 7417595 0.89 3518610
Year 3 3946495 1358705 11364090 0.8396 3313553
Year 4 3225970 4584675 14590060 0.7921 2555270
TOTAL 14590060 12655438


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2650053

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Mobile Users shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Mobile Users have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Mobile Marketing Strategy

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Mobile Users often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Mobile Users needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10005385) -10005385 - -
Year 1 3464085 -6541300 3464085 0.8696 3012248
Year 2 3953510 -2587790 7417595 0.7561 2989422
Year 3 3946495 1358705 11364090 0.6575 2594885
Year 4 3225970 4584675 14590060 0.5718 1844459
TOTAL 10441013


The Net NPV after 4 years is 435628

(10441013 - 10005385 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10005385) -10005385 - -
Year 1 3464085 -6541300 3464085 0.8333 2886738
Year 2 3953510 -2587790 7417595 0.6944 2745493
Year 3 3946495 1358705 11364090 0.5787 2283851
Year 4 3225970 4584675 14590060 0.4823 1555734
TOTAL 9471816


The Net NPV after 4 years is -533569

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9471816 - 10005385 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Mobile Users to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Mobile Users has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Mobile Users can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Mobile Users, then the stock price of the Mobile Users should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Mobile Users should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Mario Capizzani, Neeti Bhargava, Xavier Canigueral, Shruti Chaudhry (2018), "Mobile Marketing Strategy Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.