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Make in India: The Operating and Marketing Challenge Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Make in India: The Operating and Marketing Challenge case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Make in India: The Operating and Marketing Challenge case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Gaganpreet Singh, Simarpreet Singh. The Make in India: The Operating and Marketing Challenge (referred as “India Nitie” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Operations management, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Make in India: The Operating and Marketing Challenge Case Study


On September 25, 2014, the prime minister of India extended an official invitation to businesses across the globe to invest and produce in India. The program, called "Make in India," began as a way to meet the growing needs of the country's developing economy by encouraging both local innovation and foreign direct investment. Its goal was to make products without defects and with no negative impact on the environment, while protecting intellectual property. Regulatory changes and labour reforms were undertaken to enable favourable conditions for investment. However, various leading authorities had doubts about the program's focus on manufacturing and the likelihood of a successful replication of China's export-led growth model. With the many strategic and operating challenges in the way, especially with regards to infrastructure and the availability of a sufficiently skilled and motivated workforce, will "Make in India" be able to succeed in transforming the Indian economy? Gaganpreet Singh is affiliated with National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE).


Case Authors : Gaganpreet Singh, Simarpreet Singh

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Operations management, Strategy




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Make in India: The Operating and Marketing Challenge Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028906) -10028906 - -
Year 1 3444442 -6584464 3444442 0.9434 3249474
Year 2 3974091 -2610373 7418533 0.89 3536927
Year 3 3955381 1345008 11373914 0.8396 3321014
Year 4 3246462 4591470 14620376 0.7921 2571502
TOTAL 14620376 12678917


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2650011

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of India Nitie have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. India Nitie shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Make in India: The Operating and Marketing Challenge

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at India Nitie often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at India Nitie needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028906) -10028906 - -
Year 1 3444442 -6584464 3444442 0.8696 2995167
Year 2 3974091 -2610373 7418533 0.7561 3004984
Year 3 3955381 1345008 11373914 0.6575 2600727
Year 4 3246462 4591470 14620376 0.5718 1856175
TOTAL 10457053


The Net NPV after 4 years is 428147

(10457053 - 10028906 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10028906) -10028906 - -
Year 1 3444442 -6584464 3444442 0.8333 2870368
Year 2 3974091 -2610373 7418533 0.6944 2759785
Year 3 3955381 1345008 11373914 0.5787 2288994
Year 4 3246462 4591470 14620376 0.4823 1565616
TOTAL 9484764


The Net NPV after 4 years is -544142

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9484764 - 10028906 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of India Nitie to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of India Nitie has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at India Nitie can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at India Nitie, then the stock price of the India Nitie should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at India Nitie should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Gaganpreet Singh, Simarpreet Singh (2018), "Make in India: The Operating and Marketing Challenge Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.