Monte-Carlo Weddings Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Monte-Carlo Weddings case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Monte-Carlo Weddings case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Anat Keinan, Sandrine Crener. The Monte-Carlo Weddings (referred as “Weddings Frank” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Customers, Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, Risk management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Monte-Carlo Weddings Case Study

Monte-Carlo Weddings, established by Frank Damgaard in 2005, is the most respectable and exclusive wedding planning business in the South of France. Frank has organized the largest, most expensive and luxurious weddings in Europe, serving celebrities, CEOs, and other high-net-worth individuals from around the world. After 10 years in operation, constantly innovating and pushing the bar higher, Frank is wondering what is next for him and his company. Could he further elevate a wedding experience and exceed his demanding clients' expectations? Is it possible or even desirable to grow his high-touch, fully customized service provider business? How can he leverage his brand, reputation, and success in the French Riviera to build a larger business and stronger brand? What should he do next? Is he ready for another change? This case includes the topic of luxury.

Case Authors : Anat Keinan, Sandrine Crener

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas : Customers, Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, Risk management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Monte-Carlo Weddings Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012690)	-10012690	-	-
Year 1	3459656	-6553034	3459656	0.9434	3263826
Year 2	3968655	-2584379	7428311	0.89	3532089
Year 3	3939247	1354868	11367558	0.8396	3307468
Year 4	3234692	4589560	14602250	0.7921	2562179
TOTAL			14602250		12665562

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2652872

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Weddings Frank shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Weddings Frank have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Monte-Carlo Weddings

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Weddings Frank often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Weddings Frank needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012690)	-10012690	-	-
Year 1	3459656	-6553034	3459656	0.8696	3008397
Year 2	3968655	-2584379	7428311	0.7561	3000873
Year 3	3939247	1354868	11367558	0.6575	2590119
Year 4	3234692	4589560	14602250	0.5718	1849446
TOTAL					10448834

The Net NPV after 4 years is 436144

(10448834 - 10012690 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10012690)	-10012690	-	-
Year 1	3459656	-6553034	3459656	0.8333	2883047
Year 2	3968655	-2584379	7428311	0.6944	2756010
Year 3	3939247	1354868	11367558	0.5787	2279657
Year 4	3234692	4589560	14602250	0.4823	1559940
TOTAL					9478654

The Net NPV after 4 years is -534036

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9478654 - 10012690 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Weddings Frank to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Weddings Frank has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Weddings Frank can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Weddings Frank, then the stock price of the Weddings Frank should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Weddings Frank should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Monte-Carlo Weddings

References & Further Readings

Anat Keinan, Sandrine Crener (2018), "Monte-Carlo Weddings Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.