Are Movie Theaters Doomed? Do Exhibitors see the Big Picture as Theaters lose their Competitive Edge? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Are Movie Theaters Doomed? Do Exhibitors see the Big Picture as Theaters lose their Competitive Edge? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Are Movie Theaters Doomed? Do Exhibitors see the Big Picture as Theaters lose their Competitive Edge? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jon Silver, John McDonnell. The Are Movie Theaters Doomed? Do Exhibitors see the Big Picture as Theaters lose their Competitive Edge? (referred as “Theaters Movie” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Sales & Marketing. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Are Movie Theaters Doomed? Do Exhibitors see the Big Picture as Theaters lose their Competitive Edge? Case Study

After three straight years of decline, movie theaters in the US may have recently ended a period of crisis with an increase in annual admissions (+3%) in 2006. This articles argues, however, that major problems are not over for the industry. Most movie theaters in the multiplex era have adopted a remarkable similar strategy, one which is also very vulnerable to recent trends such as the explosion of home cinema, pay TV, video-on-demand (VOD), discounting by Mass merchandisers of DVDs, computer games, and the collapse of video windows. Just as technological convergence has created a challenge for movie theaters, as it has in the past, so too can new technologies and creative use of assets (combined with multiple target marketing) offer a counter measure for at least some movie theaters; at least so many multiplexes offer the same format as their competitors, appear to adopt a narrow definition of what business they are in, and manifest a 'one-size-should-fit-all' approach to customers, The industry has employed differentiation and niche marketing much less than other industries. As the extensive variety of necessary strategies cannot comprehensively be explored herein, this article focuses on two new technologies from the IMAX corporation, DMX and MPX, as an example of how a theater operator might counter audience declines.

Case Authors : Jon Silver, John McDonnell

Topic : Sales & Marketing

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Are Movie Theaters Doomed? Do Exhibitors see the Big Picture as Theaters lose their Competitive Edge? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021108)	-10021108	-	-
Year 1	3463760	-6557348	3463760	0.9434	3267698
Year 2	3975802	-2581546	7439562	0.89	3538450
Year 3	3953337	1371791	11392899	0.8396	3319298
Year 4	3229450	4601241	14622349	0.7921	2558027
TOTAL			14622349		12683473

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2662365

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Theaters Movie shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Theaters Movie have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Are Movie Theaters Doomed? Do Exhibitors see the Big Picture as Theaters lose their Competitive Edge?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Sales & Marketing Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Theaters Movie often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Theaters Movie needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021108)	-10021108	-	-
Year 1	3463760	-6557348	3463760	0.8696	3011965
Year 2	3975802	-2581546	7439562	0.7561	3006278
Year 3	3953337	1371791	11392899	0.6575	2599383
Year 4	3229450	4601241	14622349	0.5718	1846449
TOTAL					10464074

The Net NPV after 4 years is 442966

(10464074 - 10021108 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021108)	-10021108	-	-
Year 1	3463760	-6557348	3463760	0.8333	2886467
Year 2	3975802	-2581546	7439562	0.6944	2760974
Year 3	3953337	1371791	11392899	0.5787	2287811
Year 4	3229450	4601241	14622349	0.4823	1557412
TOTAL					9492663

The Net NPV after 4 years is -528445

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9492663 - 10021108 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Theaters Movie to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Theaters Movie has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Theaters Movie can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Theaters Movie, then the stock price of the Theaters Movie should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Theaters Movie should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Are Movie Theaters Doomed? Do Exhibitors see the Big Picture as Theaters lose their Competitive Edge?

References & Further Readings

Jon Silver, John McDonnell (2018), "Are Movie Theaters Doomed? Do Exhibitors see the Big Picture as Theaters lose their Competitive Edge? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.