The COFCO Group Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The COFCO Group case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The COFCO Group case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by F. Warren McFarlan, Zheng Xiaoming, Ziqian Zhao. The The COFCO Group (referred as “Cofco Cofco's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

---

Case Description of The COFCO Group Case Study

COFCO was China's sole legitimate window for agricultural foreign trade before 1987. The reform of China's foreign trade system beginning in 1987 cost COFCO its monopoly position. Subsequently, the SOE giant capitalized on its foreign trade expertise to strategically move upstream in the food industrial chain. Additionally, COFCO made investments in unrelated areas. These unrelated diversification activities were stopped by the new Chairman Ning Gaoning, appointed in 2004. He cared greatly about the innate logic for future mergers and acquisitions. The company, under his leadership, focused on its weaknesses and strengths, to identify a focused overall strategy. He brought the "whole industry chain" concept to COFCO with three clear goals in mind: 1) to shape "farmland to table" food processing to assure customers of safe, high-quality food, 2) to unite COFCO's segmented business units, and enable them to gain competitive edge over local companies 3) to increase the company's strength to compete with global food companies. The case depicts COFCO's historical transformations, identifies its mergers and acquisitions since 2005 and shows its financing history. Information is provided about several domestic and overseas competitors to illustrate COFCO's role in a larger China environment. It is not only a market player but also a main force in China's pillar industry and the only domestic food company that can rival global food companies in China's domestic market.

Case Authors : F. Warren McFarlan, Zheng Xiaoming, Ziqian Zhao

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas :

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The COFCO Group Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014777)	-10014777	-	-
Year 1	3443811	-6570966	3443811	0.9434	3248878
Year 2	3972494	-2598472	7416305	0.89	3535506
Year 3	3962578	1364106	11378883	0.8396	3327057
Year 4	3229047	4593153	14607930	0.7921	2557708
TOTAL			14607930		12669148

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2654371

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

---

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Cofco Cofco's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Cofco Cofco's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

---

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The COFCO Group

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Cofco Cofco's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Cofco Cofco's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014777)	-10014777	-	-
Year 1	3443811	-6570966	3443811	0.8696	2994618
Year 2	3972494	-2598472	7416305	0.7561	3003776
Year 3	3962578	1364106	11378883	0.6575	2605459
Year 4	3229047	4593153	14607930	0.5718	1846218
TOTAL					10450072

The Net NPV after 4 years is 435295

(10450072 - 10014777 )

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014777)	-10014777	-	-
Year 1	3443811	-6570966	3443811	0.8333	2869843
Year 2	3972494	-2598472	7416305	0.6944	2758676
Year 3	3962578	1364106	11378883	0.5787	2293159
Year 4	3229047	4593153	14607930	0.4823	1557218
TOTAL					9478895

The Net NPV after 4 years is -535882

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9478895 - 10014777 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Cofco Cofco's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Cofco Cofco's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Cofco Cofco's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Cofco Cofco's, then the stock price of the Cofco Cofco's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Cofco Cofco's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

---

Negotiation Strategy of The COFCO Group

References & Further Readings

F. Warren McFarlan, Zheng Xiaoming, Ziqian Zhao (2018), "The COFCO Group Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.