AstraZeneca, Prilosec, and Nexium: Strategic Challenges in the Launch of a Second-Generation Drug Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for AstraZeneca, Prilosec, and Nexium: Strategic Challenges in the Launch of a Second-Generation Drug case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. AstraZeneca, Prilosec, and Nexium: Strategic Challenges in the Launch of a Second-Generation Drug case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by James G. Conley, Robert C. Wolcott, Eric Wong. The AstraZeneca, Prilosec, and Nexium: Strategic Challenges in the Launch of a Second-Generation Drug (referred as “Prilosec Astrazeneca” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Intellectual property, International business, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of AstraZeneca, Prilosec, and Nexium: Strategic Challenges in the Launch of a Second-Generation Drug Case Study

Tom McKillop, CEO of AstraZeneca, faced the classic quandary of large pharmaceutical firms. Within the year, the firm's patent for Prilosec (active ingredient omeprazole) was expiring. Prilosec was a US$6.2 billion/year blockbuster that revolutionized the treatment of chronic gastro-esophageal reflux disorders (GERD). Severe cost-based competition from generic drug manufacturers was, however, inevitable. Patent expirations were nothing new for the US$15.8 billion in revenues drug firm. AstraZeneca had Nexium, an improvement on the original Prilosec molecule, in the pipeline. Ideally, it would like to move brand-loyal Prilosec customers to Nexium. Additionally, the company had the opportunity to introduce its own version of generic omeprazole, hence becoming the first mover in the generic segment, and/or introduce an over-the-counter (OTC) version of omeprazole. Tactically, AstraZeneca would like to use regulatory incentives and intellectual property rights to strengthen its competitive position. How could the company use its entire portfolio of intellectual properties-including patents and trademarks-to actively manage the priced-based competition and achieve a revenue growth strategy in the GERD market?

Case Authors : James G. Conley, Robert C. Wolcott, Eric Wong

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Intellectual property, International business, Strategy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for AstraZeneca, Prilosec, and Nexium: Strategic Challenges in the Launch of a Second-Generation Drug Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10003584)	-10003584	-	-
Year 1	3451224	-6552360	3451224	0.9434	3255872
Year 2	3971310	-2581050	7422534	0.89	3534452
Year 3	3938824	1357774	11361358	0.8396	3307113
Year 4	3234490	4592264	14595848	0.7921	2562019
TOTAL			14595848		12659455

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2655871

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Prilosec Astrazeneca have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Prilosec Astrazeneca shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of AstraZeneca, Prilosec, and Nexium: Strategic Challenges in the Launch of a Second-Generation Drug

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Prilosec Astrazeneca often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Prilosec Astrazeneca needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10003584)	-10003584	-	-
Year 1	3451224	-6552360	3451224	0.8696	3001064
Year 2	3971310	-2581050	7422534	0.7561	3002881
Year 3	3938824	1357774	11361358	0.6575	2589841
Year 4	3234490	4592264	14595848	0.5718	1849330
TOTAL					10443116

The Net NPV after 4 years is 439532

(10443116 - 10003584 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10003584)	-10003584	-	-
Year 1	3451224	-6552360	3451224	0.8333	2876020
Year 2	3971310	-2581050	7422534	0.6944	2757854
Year 3	3938824	1357774	11361358	0.5787	2279412
Year 4	3234490	4592264	14595848	0.4823	1559843
TOTAL					9473129

The Net NPV after 4 years is -530455

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9473129 - 10003584 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Prilosec Astrazeneca to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Prilosec Astrazeneca has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Prilosec Astrazeneca can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Prilosec Astrazeneca, then the stock price of the Prilosec Astrazeneca should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Prilosec Astrazeneca should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of AstraZeneca, Prilosec, and Nexium: Strategic Challenges in the Launch of a Second-Generation Drug

References & Further Readings

James G. Conley, Robert C. Wolcott, Eric Wong (2018), "AstraZeneca, Prilosec, and Nexium: Strategic Challenges in the Launch of a Second-Generation Drug Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.