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Texas Children's Hospital: Congenital Heart Disease Care Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Texas Children's Hospital: Congenital Heart Disease Care case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Texas Children's Hospital: Congenital Heart Disease Care case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Michael E. Porter, Justin M. Bachmann, Zachary C. Landman. The Texas Children's Hospital: Congenital Heart Disease Care (referred as “Children's Congenital” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Operations management, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Texas Children's Hospital: Congenital Heart Disease Care Case Study


In 2014, Dr. Charles D. Fraser Jr., Surgeon-in-Chief of Texas Children's Hospital in Houston, was contemplating the future direction of the congenital heart disease program. The nation's largest pediatric hospital, Texas Children's was ranked by U.S. News & World Report as #4 in the nation in 2012-2013. It was ranked #3 in pediatric heart care and heart surgery, following Boston Children's and Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP). Texas Children's had some of the highest volumes in the nation, seeing more than 20,000 congenital heart disease patients and performing over 800 cardiac surgeries annually. Fraser led the reorganization of Texas Children's care for congenital heart disease conditions beginning in 1995, and had initiated universal outcome measurement. In 2014, the challenge was to continue to improve care in a complicated patient population, and take outcome measurement to a new level. Also, Texas Children's had recently formed partnerships with pediatric hospitals in Temple, San Antonio and Mexico City, and how to structure these partnerships was under active discussion.


Case Authors : Michael E. Porter, Justin M. Bachmann, Zachary C. Landman

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Operations management, Strategy




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Texas Children's Hospital: Congenital Heart Disease Care Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10022563) -10022563 - -
Year 1 3453536 -6569027 3453536 0.9434 3258053
Year 2 3974068 -2594959 7427604 0.89 3536906
Year 3 3961674 1366715 11389278 0.8396 3326298
Year 4 3230642 4597357 14619920 0.7921 2558971
TOTAL 14619920 12680228




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2657665

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Children's Congenital have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Children's Congenital shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Texas Children's Hospital: Congenital Heart Disease Care

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Children's Congenital often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Children's Congenital needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10022563) -10022563 - -
Year 1 3453536 -6569027 3453536 0.8696 3003075
Year 2 3974068 -2594959 7427604 0.7561 3004966
Year 3 3961674 1366715 11389278 0.6575 2604865
Year 4 3230642 4597357 14619920 0.5718 1847130
TOTAL 10460036


The Net NPV after 4 years is 437473

(10460036 - 10022563 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10022563) -10022563 - -
Year 1 3453536 -6569027 3453536 0.8333 2877947
Year 2 3974068 -2594959 7427604 0.6944 2759769
Year 3 3961674 1366715 11389278 0.5787 2292635
Year 4 3230642 4597357 14619920 0.4823 1557987
TOTAL 9488339


The Net NPV after 4 years is -534224

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9488339 - 10022563 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Children's Congenital to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Children's Congenital has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Children's Congenital can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Children's Congenital, then the stock price of the Children's Congenital should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Children's Congenital should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Texas Children's Hospital: Congenital Heart Disease Care

References & Further Readings

Michael E. Porter, Justin M. Bachmann, Zachary C. Landman (2018), "Texas Children's Hospital: Congenital Heart Disease Care Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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