Sydney IVF: Stem Cell Research Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Sydney IVF: Stem Cell Research case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Sydney IVF: Stem Cell Research case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Robert L. Simons, Kathryn Rosenberg, Natalie Kindred. The Sydney IVF: Stem Cell Research (referred as “Ivf Stem” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Ethics, Growth strategy, Innovation, International business, Managing people, Marketing, Risk management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

Case Description of Sydney IVF: Stem Cell Research Case Study

This case examines the strategy implementation and risk management decisions at Sydney IVF, a research-based in vitro fertilization and stem cell company based in Australia. Drs. Robert Jansen and Jock Anderson, who co-founded Sydney IVF in 1986, developed novel technologies which they leveraged to carve a leadership role in the inherently risky artificial fertilization business. As the company grew, its executives grappled with managing the political, ethical and business risks associated with the contentious lab-based fertility field, instituting sophisticated safeguards such as an independent ethics committee and a "whistle blower" system for employees concerned with the company's practices. In less than two decades, Sydney IVF grew from just four employees to over 200, expanded internationally, and broadened its services to include prenatal screening for genetic diseases and DNA tests to determine lineage and paternity. In addition, the company launched a wholly-owned subsidiary, the Stem Cell Company. CEO Robert Jansen hoped to grow the Stem Cell Company, but faced many challenges, including the significant ethical risks, challenging regulatory environment, and uncertain future of the stem cell field. The case describes how Jansen safeguards against risk without stifling the innovative spirit necessary to commercialize stem cells.

Case Authors : Robert L. Simons, Kathryn Rosenberg, Natalie Kindred

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Ethics, Growth strategy, Innovation, International business, Managing people, Marketing, Risk management

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Sydney IVF: Stem Cell Research Case Study

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10012530) -10012530 - -
Year 1 3466411 -6546119 3466411 0.9434 3270199
Year 2 3975322 -2570797 7441733 0.89 3538022
Year 3 3974822 1404025 11416555 0.8396 3337337
Year 4 3251591 4655616 14668146 0.7921 2575565
TOTAL 14668146 12721123

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2708593

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ivf Stem shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ivf Stem have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Sydney IVF: Stem Cell Research

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ivf Stem often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ivf Stem needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10012530) -10012530 - -
Year 1 3466411 -6546119 3466411 0.8696 3014270
Year 2 3975322 -2570797 7441733 0.7561 3005915
Year 3 3974822 1404025 11416555 0.6575 2613510
Year 4 3251591 4655616 14668146 0.5718 1859108
TOTAL 10492803

The Net NPV after 4 years is 480273

(10492803 - 10012530 )

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10012530) -10012530 - -
Year 1 3466411 -6546119 3466411 0.8333 2888676
Year 2 3975322 -2570797 7441733 0.6944 2760640
Year 3 3974822 1404025 11416555 0.5787 2300244
Year 4 3251591 4655616 14668146 0.4823 1568090
TOTAL 9517650

The Net NPV after 4 years is -494880

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9517650 - 10012530 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ivf Stem to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ivf Stem has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ivf Stem can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ivf Stem, then the stock price of the Ivf Stem should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ivf Stem should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

References & Further Readings

Robert L. Simons, Kathryn Rosenberg, Natalie Kindred (2018), "Sydney IVF: Stem Cell Research Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.