Deutsche Telekom in 2016: Driving Disruption from Within the Industry Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Deutsche Telekom in 2016: Driving Disruption from Within the Industry case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Deutsche Telekom in 2016: Driving Disruption from Within the Industry case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Robert A. Burgelman, Debra Schifrin. The Deutsche Telekom in 2016: Driving Disruption from Within the Industry (referred as “Deutsche Hottges” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Customer service, Innovation, International business, Regulation, Technology.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Deutsche Telekom in 2016: Driving Disruption from Within the Industry Case Study

In 2016, Deutsche Telekom's CEO Tim Hottges was steering the 69 billion euro telecom incumbent in new directions and seeking to disrupt the industry from within. The company's tagline was "Life is For Sharing." Its goal was to be Europe's leading digital communication services company that was most trusted by consumers and business customers for safely sharing content. Hottges wanted to achieve this by having the best network, the best service, the best products, and the best customer experience. The company also aimed to be the preferred provider for business customers. A major part of Deutsche Telekom's strategy involved building up the company's core business-its network-by increasing infrastructure investment 20 percent. Hottges described this as his "big bet," saying the network was the basis for everything the company did. Even as it built out the network, an ongoing challenge was finding the right software talent to support the growing software IT components of the network infrastructure. With that in mind, Deutsche Telekom was also developing capabilities on top of network connectivity, such as security, device management, privacy, and global reach capability. While focusing its innovation on advanced network capabilities, Deutsche Telekom was shifting resources away from efforts to internally innovate in competition with Internet-based players. Instead, it was now intent on winning by partnering with companies like Microsoft, Spotify, and BMW to bring new capabilities, innovations, and services to customers. European and German regulations created significant constraints, and external competition remained fierce from both telecommunications companies and so-called "Over the Top" companies such as Google, Facebook, and WhatsApp. These companies had diverted billions of dollars away from traditional telecommunications companies, enabled by telco companies' infrastructures. To counter that, Deutsche Telekom needed to strongly align strategy and execution.

Case Authors : Robert A. Burgelman, Debra Schifrin

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Customer service, Innovation, International business, Regulation, Technology

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Deutsche Telekom in 2016: Driving Disruption from Within the Industry Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000612)	-10000612	-	-
Year 1	3464421	-6536191	3464421	0.9434	3268322
Year 2	3961445	-2574746	7425866	0.89	3525672
Year 3	3969551	1394805	11395417	0.8396	3332912
Year 4	3251159	4645964	14646576	0.7921	2575222
TOTAL			14646576		12702128

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2701516

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Deutsche Hottges have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Deutsche Hottges shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Deutsche Telekom in 2016: Driving Disruption from Within the Industry

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Deutsche Hottges often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Deutsche Hottges needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000612)	-10000612	-	-
Year 1	3464421	-6536191	3464421	0.8696	3012540
Year 2	3961445	-2574746	7425866	0.7561	2995422
Year 3	3969551	1394805	11395417	0.6575	2610044
Year 4	3251159	4645964	14646576	0.5718	1858861
TOTAL					10476866

The Net NPV after 4 years is 476254

(10476866 - 10000612 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000612)	-10000612	-	-
Year 1	3464421	-6536191	3464421	0.8333	2887018
Year 2	3961445	-2574746	7425866	0.6944	2751003
Year 3	3969551	1394805	11395417	0.5787	2297194
Year 4	3251159	4645964	14646576	0.4823	1567881
TOTAL					9503096

The Net NPV after 4 years is -497516

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9503096 - 10000612 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Deutsche Hottges to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Deutsche Hottges has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Deutsche Hottges can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Deutsche Hottges, then the stock price of the Deutsche Hottges should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Deutsche Hottges should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Deutsche Telekom in 2016: Driving Disruption from Within the Industry

References & Further Readings

Robert A. Burgelman, Debra Schifrin (2018), "Deutsche Telekom in 2016: Driving Disruption from Within the Industry Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.