Interest Rate Regulation and Competition in the Banking Industry in Hong Kong Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Interest Rate Regulation and Competition in the Banking Industry in Hong Kong case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Interest Rate Regulation and Competition in the Banking Industry in Hong Kong case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Yue-Chim Richard Wong, Alexandra Yiu, Jennifer Li, Jack Li. The Interest Rate Regulation and Competition in the Banking Industry in Hong Kong (referred as “Banks Kong” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Financial markets, Regulation.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Interest Rate Regulation and Competition in the Banking Industry in Hong Kong Case Study

Investigates the effects of the interest rate rules on banks in Hong Kong, as well as on depositors. With the interest rate rules, the Hong Kong Association of Banks acted as a cartel to set the maximum interest rate of certain Hong Kong dollar deposits. Charging almost uniform interest rates, banks in Hong Kong relied on nonprice competition to attract deposits. After deregulation of interest rates in the 1990s and 2000s, banks are free to set deposit rates according to market conditions and their own strategies. Despite the general expectation of banks offering higher rates to compete for deposits, the sluggish loan demand and ample liquidity after the Asian financial crisis veiled the potential price competition among banks. Identifies changes in deposit rates and deposit base as well as the profitability and risks of banks. The findings provide a factual base for analyzing competition in the banking industry.

Case Authors : Yue-Chim Richard Wong, Alexandra Yiu, Jennifer Li, Jack Li

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Financial management, Financial markets, Regulation

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Interest Rate Regulation and Competition in the Banking Industry in Hong Kong Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014395)	-10014395	-	-
Year 1	3468799	-6545596	3468799	0.9434	3272452
Year 2	3975588	-2570008	7444387	0.89	3538259
Year 3	3943383	1373375	11387770	0.8396	3310940
Year 4	3244689	4618064	14632459	0.7921	2570098
TOTAL			14632459		12691749

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2677354

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Banks Kong have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Banks Kong shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Interest Rate Regulation and Competition in the Banking Industry in Hong Kong

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Banks Kong often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Banks Kong needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014395)	-10014395	-	-
Year 1	3468799	-6545596	3468799	0.8696	3016347
Year 2	3975588	-2570008	7444387	0.7561	3006116
Year 3	3943383	1373375	11387770	0.6575	2592838
Year 4	3244689	4618064	14632459	0.5718	1855161
TOTAL					10470462

The Net NPV after 4 years is 456067

(10470462 - 10014395 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014395)	-10014395	-	-
Year 1	3468799	-6545596	3468799	0.8333	2890666
Year 2	3975588	-2570008	7444387	0.6944	2760825
Year 3	3943383	1373375	11387770	0.5787	2282050
Year 4	3244689	4618064	14632459	0.4823	1564761
TOTAL					9498302

The Net NPV after 4 years is -516093

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9498302 - 10014395 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Banks Kong to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Banks Kong has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Banks Kong can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Banks Kong, then the stock price of the Banks Kong should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Banks Kong should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Interest Rate Regulation and Competition in the Banking Industry in Hong Kong

References & Further Readings

Yue-Chim Richard Wong, Alexandra Yiu, Jennifer Li, Jack Li (2018), "Interest Rate Regulation and Competition in the Banking Industry in Hong Kong Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.