Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?
At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. New Strategies in Emerging Markets case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by David J. Arnold, John A. Quelch. The New Strategies in Emerging Markets (referred as “Ems Frameworks” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Emerging markets.
The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.
This is an MIT Sloan Management Review article. Once viewed as "less developed countries," emerging markets (EMs) now offer a significant growth opportunity for multinational corporations. Because EMs differ dramatically from mature markets, they raise new strategic questions that traditional marketing frameworks do not resolve. Traditional models argue against first-mover advantages in EMs. However, additional sources of advantage--favorable government relations, pent-up demand, marketing productivity, marketing resources, and consequent learning--can make early market entry a desirable option. The authors provide a framework, oriented toward demand rather than risk, that enables companies to assess long-term market potential, identify business prospects, and predict potential benefits. Using the framework, companies can categorize EMs on the basis of short- and long-term potential. Once a multinational corporation decides to enter a market, it needs new frameworks to guide product and partner policy decisions. The different patterns of market development in EMs imply that, contrary to conventional models, companies can expand the market rapidly, should offer a combination of global imported brands and locally made joint venture brands, and use EMs to test product innovations. The design and management of relationships with local distributor partners is the most critical challenge for executives. In the areas of industry experience, direct selling, local autonomy, and exclusivity, experienced multinationals are adapting the approaches employed in developed markets in ways that are appropriate for emerging ones.
| Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 6 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | (10025568) | -10025568 | - | - | |
| Year 1 | 3465245 | -6560323 | 3465245 | 0.9434 | 3269099 |
| Year 2 | 3979161 | -2581162 | 7444406 | 0.89 | 3541439 |
| Year 3 | 3954597 | 1373435 | 11399003 | 0.8396 | 3320356 |
| Year 4 | 3241008 | 4614443 | 14640011 | 0.7921 | 2567182 |
| TOTAL | 14640011 | 12698076 |
In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -
Capital Budgeting Approaches
There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –
1. Payback Period
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value
Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on
Discounted Cash Flow
technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.
Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –
1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ems Frameworks have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ems Frameworks shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0
Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate.
Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.
Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project
In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ems Frameworks often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.
To overcome such scenarios managers at Ems Frameworks needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.
After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.
| Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 15 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | (10025568) | -10025568 | - | - | |
| Year 1 | 3465245 | -6560323 | 3465245 | 0.8696 | 3013257 |
| Year 2 | 3979161 | -2581162 | 7444406 | 0.7561 | 3008817 |
| Year 3 | 3954597 | 1373435 | 11399003 | 0.6575 | 2600212 |
| Year 4 | 3241008 | 4614443 | 14640011 | 0.5718 | 1853057 |
| TOTAL | 10475342 |
(10475342 - 10025568 )
If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.
| Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 20 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | (10025568) | -10025568 | - | - | |
| Year 1 | 3465245 | -6560323 | 3465245 | 0.8333 | 2887704 |
| Year 2 | 3979161 | -2581162 | 7444406 | 0.6944 | 2763306 |
| Year 3 | 3954597 | 1373435 | 11399003 | 0.5787 | 2288540 |
| Year 4 | 3241008 | 4614443 | 14640011 | 0.4823 | 1562986 |
| TOTAL | 9502536 |
At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9502536 - 10025568 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ems Frameworks to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.
Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ems Frameworks has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ems Frameworks can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.
In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ems Frameworks, then the stock price of the Ems Frameworks should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.
In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.
Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ems Frameworks should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –
What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.
What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.
What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.
What can impact the cash flow of the project.
Understanding of risks involved in the project.
Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.
Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.
David J. Arnold, John A. Quelch (2018), "New Strategies in Emerging Markets Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.
Feel free to connect with us if you need business research.
You can download Excel Template of Case Study Solution & Analysis of New Strategies in Emerging Markets
Consumer Cyclical , Appliance & Tool
Financial , Misc. Financial Services
Services , Real Estate Operations
Transportation , Air Courier
Utilities , Electric Utilities
Technology , Computer Hardware
Technology , Software & Programming
Basic Materials , Metal Mining
Basic Materials , Metal Mining
