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AAC Technologies (B): Strategies for Development and Growth Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for AAC Technologies (B): Strategies for Development and Growth case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. AAC Technologies (B): Strategies for Development and Growth case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Boon Siong Neo, Yu Zou. The AAC Technologies (B): Strategies for Development and Growth (referred as “Aac Aac's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Innovation, IT, Leadership, Manufacturing, Mobile, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of AAC Technologies (B): Strategies for Development and Growth Case Study


Supplement to case NTU087. AAC Technologies Holdings Inc., headquartered in Shenzhen, was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2005. The case describes AAC's transformation from a small Chinese family business into a leading global technology solutions provider in the mobile devices industry. The focus is on how the founders developed the company's strategic capabilities through R&D and acquisitions to win major customers and integrated its technological leadership strategy with industry trends and developments, and hence poised to seize market opportunities.


Case Authors : Boon Siong Neo, Yu Zou

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Innovation, IT, Leadership, Manufacturing, Mobile, Strategy




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for AAC Technologies (B): Strategies for Development and Growth Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10025609) -10025609 - -
Year 1 3464254 -6561355 3464254 0.9434 3268164
Year 2 3962243 -2599112 7426497 0.89 3526382
Year 3 3954539 1355427 11381036 0.8396 3320307
Year 4 3234049 4589476 14615085 0.7921 2561670
TOTAL 14615085 12676523




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2650914

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Aac Aac's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Aac Aac's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of AAC Technologies (B): Strategies for Development and Growth

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Aac Aac's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Aac Aac's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10025609) -10025609 - -
Year 1 3464254 -6561355 3464254 0.8696 3012395
Year 2 3962243 -2599112 7426497 0.7561 2996025
Year 3 3954539 1355427 11381036 0.6575 2600174
Year 4 3234049 4589476 14615085 0.5718 1849078
TOTAL 10457671


The Net NPV after 4 years is 432062

(10457671 - 10025609 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10025609) -10025609 - -
Year 1 3464254 -6561355 3464254 0.8333 2886878
Year 2 3962243 -2599112 7426497 0.6944 2751558
Year 3 3954539 1355427 11381036 0.5787 2288506
Year 4 3234049 4589476 14615085 0.4823 1559630
TOTAL 9486572


The Net NPV after 4 years is -539037

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9486572 - 10025609 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Aac Aac's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Aac Aac's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Aac Aac's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Aac Aac's, then the stock price of the Aac Aac's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Aac Aac's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of AAC Technologies (B): Strategies for Development and Growth

References & Further Readings

Boon Siong Neo, Yu Zou (2018), "AAC Technologies (B): Strategies for Development and Growth Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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